Silver, Gold & Miners About To Sell Off Again

Silver, Gold & Miners About To Sell Off Again

A couple weeks ago I posted these same charts talking about the pending breakout (in either direction) with silver, gold and mining stocks. Fast forwarding to this week its clear this sector continues its struggle to rally. Key support levels are now being tested and if these levels fail prepare for a sharp correction with mining stocks showing the most downside potential of roughly 25% for the GDX ETF trading fund.

Let’s take a quick look at what is going on.

Gold Trading Chart:

The chart of gold shows price being wedge into the apex of the down sloping resistance trend line and the rising support trendline. Gold was trading below this level but has since bounced. But if gold closes the week below this line in the sand the price could start to fall quickly and test the $1200 per ounce within a week or two.

gold18

 

Silver Trading Chart:

Silver is under performing gold and trading below its support level currently. If silver does not recover by Friday’s closing bell then things could get ugly for a few weeks as investors start to exit their positions. That being said, I need to point out that silver is more of a wild card when using trend lines like this. Both gold and gold miners should be confirming this breakdown in silver if it is the real deal.

silver18

 

Gold Mining Stocks ETF:

The chart of gold miners I like the most. I like it because it’s pointing to lower prices, roughly 25% lower if the breakdown takes place. Gold mining stocks could be a fantastic long term investment if we see the $17.50 level reached on this GDX etf.

gdx18

 

Last week I talked about ETF trading strategies and the big picture on gold, silver, miners and bonds. They look to be nearing a major bottom and once they do bottom it should be a great buying opportunity for specific stocks or the entire sector.

The next few weeks are going to be crucial for precious metals and we will keep an eye on them as this bottom unfolds. Get more reports like this here: www.GoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen

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Gold Eyes Key Support as Blowout GDP/NFPs Fuel USD Rally

By , Currency Strategist

08 November 2013 21:49 GMT 
 
Gold_Eyes_Key_Support_as_Blowout_GDPNFPs_Fuel_USD_Rally_body_Picture_1.png, Gold Eyes Key Support as Blowout GDP/NFPs Fuel USD Rally

 

Gold Eyes Key Support as Blowout GDP/NFPs Fuel USD Rally

 

Fundamental Forecast for Gold:Bearish

 

Gold prices plummeted again this week with the precious metal off by nearly 2.3% to trade at $1285 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The losses come on the back of a jam packed week of economic data prints and central bank rate decisions that fueled a broad based rally in the greenback against most of its major counterparts and gold. But with bullion prices now down five of the past six sessions, has the decline gone too far? The technicals suggest not.

 

Event risk for the week culminated on Thursday and Friday with the US 3Q GDP and NFP print, both of which crushed consensus estimates. The US economy grew by at an annualized rate of 2.8% q/q in the third quarter, topping excitations for a read of just 2.0%, and up from a previous print of 2.5% in the second quarter. The release came on the heels of the European Central Bank rate decision where President Mario Draghi unexpectedly cut the benchmark interest rate from by 25 basis points to a record low of 0.25%. Gold initially posted a rally to test the November highs before the GDP print prompted a rush into the greenback at the expense of yellow metal.

 

The non-farm payrolls report on Friday was the highlight of the week with the report showing the addition of 204K jobs in October, far surpassing the expectations for a meager 120K print. Upward revisions to the September read further supported the dollar rally as market participants began to pricing in expectations for a possible Fed taper in the coming months. Although the headline data was extremely strong, it’s important to note that the unemployment rate did rise to 7.3% from 7.2% despite a massive 720K decline in the civilian labor pool that brought the participation rate to its lowest levels since 1979 at 62.8%. As such, it’s unlikely that central bank will look to alter policy on this labor market report, but does put added emphasis on the November read which will be released ahead of the FOMC meeting next month.

 

The economic docket lightens up next week with only a hand full of metrics to note: Trade balance data on Thursday and Empire Manufacturing & Industrial Production figures on Friday. We will look to broader market sentiment and the greenback for conviction as the USDOLLAR approaches key resistance at 10,581- 10,604.

 

From a technical standpoint, gold has now broken below the 61.8% retracement of the advance off of the October lows at $1293 and we continue to eye the $1269-$1277 support objective for guidance as we move deeper into November trade. A break below this mark risks further losses with key support targets seen lower at $1233, $1209 and the yearly low at $1180. Note that daily RSI has now broken below a trendline support trigger and suggests that the near-term shift in momentum is to be respected. As such, we will maintain a bearish bias below $1327 (November opening range high) with only a breach above $1364 invalidating the broader decline off the August highs.

Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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Economic Calendar

 

Here is a list of this week’s upcoming economic events. Economic events can have a direct effect on volatility, which may change the values of your trades. For real-time technical and fundamental analysis, tune-in to the LIVE! Analyst on Demand room.

To view the full Economic Calendar, click hereRemember: We are constantly updating this calendar to help you make strategic trades. Check back often so you don’t miss any important events.

Best Regards,
ForexTips.com


This weeks Economic Calendar

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Myfxbook Weekly Economic Calendar For Sep 15, 2013-Sep 21, 2013‏

Below you will find a list of economic events for the week ahead – economic events can have a direct effect on volatility which may affect your trading.

For the the full real-time Economic Calendar please go here:http://www.myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar

Date Country Event Impact Previous Consensus
Sunday Sep 15, 23:00 New Zealand  Westpac consumer survey Medium 116.6  
Sunday Sep 15, 23:01 United Kingdom  Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) Low -1.8%  
Sunday Sep 15, 23:01 United Kingdom  Rightmove House Price Index (YoY) Low 5.5%  
Monday Sep 16, 00:00 Mexico  Independence Day      
Monday Sep 16, 00:00 Japan  Respect-for-the-Aged Day Bank Holiday      
Monday Sep 16, 06:30 India  WPI Inflation Low 5.79%  
Monday Sep 16, 07:00 Turkey  3mth quarterly jobless average Low 8.8%  
Monday Sep 16, 07:00 Slovakia  EU Norm Inflation (MoM) Low -0.1%  
Monday Sep 16, 07:00 Slovakia  EU Norm Inflation (YoY) Low 1.6%  
Monday Sep 16, 07:00 Czech Republic  Producer Price Index (MoM) Low 0.2%  
Monday Sep 16, 07:00 Czech Republic  Producer Price Index (YoY) Low 1.1%  
Monday Sep 16, 08:00 Italy  Global Trade Balance Low €3.618 €4.13
Monday Sep 16, 08:00 Italy  Trade Balance EU Low €1.124  
Monday Sep 16, 08:00 Norway  Trade Balance Low 35.3  
Monday Sep 16, 09:00 European Monetary Union  Consumer Price Index – Core (YoY) High 1.1% 1.3%
Monday Sep 16, 09:00 European Monetary Union  Consumer Price Index (MoM) Medium -0.5% 0.1%
Monday Sep 16, 09:00 European Monetary Union  Consumer Price Index (YoY) High 1.6% 1.3%
Monday Sep 16, 09:00 European Monetary Union  Labour cost Medium 1.6%  
Monday Sep 16, 10:00 Turkey  Budget Balance Low -1.2  
Monday Sep 16, 12:00 Poland  Net Inflation Low 1.4%  
Monday Sep 16, 12:30 Canada  Canadian portfolio investment in foreign securities Low $3.69  
Monday Sep 16, 12:30 Canada  Foreign portfolio investment in Canadian securities Low $-15.41  
Monday Sep 16, 12:30 United States  NY Empire State Manufacturing Index Low 8.24 9.1
Monday Sep 16, 13:15 United States  Capacity Utilization Low 77.6% 77.8%
Monday Sep 16, 13:15 United States  Industrial Production (MoM) Medium 0.0% 0.3%
Monday Sep 16, 21:00 Korea, Republic of  Producer Price Index Growth Low 0.0%  
Monday Sep 16, 21:00 Korea, Republic of  Producer Price Index Growth (YoY) Low -0.9%  
Monday Sep 16, 21:00 New Zealand  REINZ House Price Index (MoM) Medium -0.5%  
Monday Sep 16, 23:01 United Kingdom  BoE Quarterly Bulletin Low    
Tuesday Sep 17, 01:30 Australia  New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) Low -3.5%  
Tuesday Sep 17, 01:30 Australia  RBA Meeting’s Minutes High    
Tuesday Sep 17, 01:30 Australia  New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) Low 3.0%  
Tuesday Sep 17, 02:00 China  CB Leading Economic Index Low 1.4  
Tuesday Sep 17, 02:00 China  FDI – Foreign Direct Investment (YTD)(YoY) Medium 7.1%  
Tuesday Sep 17, 08:00 European Monetary Union  Current Account n.s.a Low €26.1 €15.0
Tuesday Sep 17, 08:00 European Monetary Union  Current Account s.a Low €16.9 €16.5
Tuesday Sep 17, 08:30 United Kingdom  Consumer Price Index (MoM) Medium 0.0% 0.5%
Tuesday Sep 17, 08:30 United Kingdom  Consumer Price Index (YoY) High 2.8% 2.7%
Tuesday Sep 17, 08:30 United Kingdom  Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) High 2.0% 2.1%
Tuesday Sep 17, 08:30 United Kingdom  DCLG House Price Index (YoY) Low 3.1% 3.4%
Tuesday Sep 17, 08:30 United Kingdom  PPI Core Output (MoM) n.s.a Low 0.1% 0.1%
Tuesday Sep 17, 08:30 United Kingdom  PPI Core Output (YoY) n.s.a Medium 1.1% 1.1%
Tuesday Sep 17, 08:30 United Kingdom  Producer Price Index – Input (MoM) n.s.a Low 1.1% 0.3%
Tuesday Sep 17, 08:30 United Kingdom  Producer Price Index – Input (YoY) n.s.a Low 5.0%  
Tuesday Sep 17, 08:30 United Kingdom  Producer Price Index – Output (MoM) n.s.a Low 0.2% 0.2%
Tuesday Sep 17, 08:30 United Kingdom  Producer Price Index – Output (YoY) n.s.a Medium 2.1% 1.8%
Tuesday Sep 17, 08:30 United Kingdom  Retail Price Index (MoM) Low 0.0%  
Tuesday Sep 17, 08:30 United Kingdom  Retail Price Index (YoY) Low 3.1% 3.2%
Tuesday Sep 17, 08:30 Hong Kong SAR  Unemployment rate Low 3.3%  
Tuesday Sep 17, 08:50 Spain  6-Month Letras Auction Low 0.83%  
Tuesday Sep 17, 09:00 European Monetary Union  Trade Balance n.s.a. Low €17.3 €19.4
Tuesday Sep 17, 09:00 European Monetary Union  Trade Balance s.a. Low €14.9 €15.3
Tuesday Sep 17, 09:00 Germany  ZEW Survey – Current Situation Medium 18.3 22.0
Tuesday Sep 17, 09:00 Germany  ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment Medium 42.0 46.0
Tuesday Sep 17, 09:00 European Monetary Union  ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment High 44.0  
Tuesday Sep 17, 09:30 Spain  12-Month Letras Auction Low 1.25%  
Tuesday Sep 17, 11:00 Turkey  TCMB Interest Rate Decision Low 4.5%  
Tuesday Sep 17, 12:30 United States  Consumer Price Index (MoM) Medium 0.2% 0.2%
Tuesday Sep 17, 12:30 United States  Consumer Price Index (YoY) High 2.0% 1.7%
Tuesday Sep 17, 12:30 United States  Consumer Price Index Core s.a Low 234.004  
Tuesday Sep 17, 12:30 United States  Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) Medium 0.2% 0.2%
Tuesday Sep 17, 12:30 United States  Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) High 1.7% 1.8%
Tuesday Sep 17, 12:30 United States  Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) Low 233.596  
Tuesday Sep 17, 12:30 Canada  Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) Medium -0.5% 0.6%
Tuesday Sep 17, 12:55 United States  Redbook index (MoM) Low 0.3%  
Tuesday Sep 17, 12:55 United States  Redbook index (YoY) Low 4.6%  
Tuesday Sep 17, 13:00 United States  Net Long-Term TIC Flows Medium $-66.9 $-45.3
Tuesday Sep 17, 13:00 United States  Total Net TIC Flows Low $-19.0  
Tuesday Sep 17, 14:00 United States  NAHB Housing Market Index Medium 59.0 60.0
Tuesday Sep 17, 22:45 New Zealand  Current Account (QoQ) Low $-0.66 $-1.87
Tuesday Sep 17, 22:45 New Zealand  Current Account – GDP Ratio Low -4.8%  
Wednesday Sep 18, 00:00 Korea, Republic of  Harvest Festival      
Wednesday Sep 18, 00:00 Chile  Independence Day of Chile      
Wednesday Sep 18, 00:00 Australia  CB Leading Indicator Medium -0.2%  
Wednesday Sep 18, 00:00 Greece  Current Account (YoY) Low €0.066  
Wednesday Sep 18, 00:30 Australia  Westpac Leading Index (MoM) Medium 0.0%  
Wednesday Sep 18, 01:30 China  House Price Index Low 7.5%  
Wednesday Sep 18, 08:00 South Africa  Consumer Price Index (MoM) Low 1.1%  
Wednesday Sep 18, 08:00 South Africa  Consumer Price Index (YoY) Low 6.3%  
Wednesday Sep 18, 08:30 United Kingdom  Bank of England Minutes High    
Wednesday Sep 18, 08:30 United Kingdom  BOE MPC Vote Cut High 0.0  
Wednesday Sep 18, 08:30 United Kingdom  BOE MPC Vote Hike High 0.0  
Wednesday Sep 18, 08:30 United Kingdom  BOE MPC Vote Unchanged High 9.0  
Wednesday Sep 18, 09:00 Switzerland  ZEW Survey – Expectations Medium 7.2 20.0
Wednesday Sep 18, 09:00 European Monetary Union  Construction Output s.a (MoM) Low 0.7%  
Wednesday Sep 18, 09:00 European Monetary Union  Construction Output w.d.a (YoY) Low -3.0%  
Wednesday Sep 18, 11:00 United States  MBA Mortgage Applications Low -13.5%  
Wednesday Sep 18, 11:30 India  M3 Money Supply Low 12.2%  
Wednesday Sep 18, 12:00 Poland  Industrial Output (YoY) Low 6.3%  
Wednesday Sep 18, 12:30 United States  Building Permits (MoM) High 0.943 0.95
Wednesday Sep 18, 12:30 United States  Housing Starts (MoM) Medium 0.896 0.913
Wednesday Sep 18, 14:30 United States  EIA Crude Oil Stocks change Medium -0.219  
Wednesday Sep 18, 14:40 Canada  BoC Governor Poloz Speech High    
Wednesday Sep 18, 18:00 United States  Fed Interest Rate Decision High 0.25% 0.25%
Wednesday Sep 18, 18:00 United States  FOMC Economic Projections High    
Wednesday Sep 18, 18:00 United States  Fed Pace of Treasury Purchase Program High   $35.0
Wednesday Sep 18, 18:00 United States  Fed Pace of MBS Purchase Program High   $40.0
Wednesday Sep 18, 18:30 United States  Fed’s Monetary Policy Statement and press conference High    
Wednesday Sep 18, 22:45 New Zealand  Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) Medium 0.3%  
Wednesday Sep 18, 22:45 New Zealand  Gross Domestic Product (YoY) High 2.4%  
Wednesday Sep 18, 23:50 Japan  Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance Low ¥-994.0 ¥-819.2
Wednesday Sep 18, 23:50 Japan  Exports (YoY) Low 12.2% 14.5%
Wednesday Sep 18, 23:50 Japan  Imports (YoY) Low 19.6% 18.5%
Wednesday Sep 18, 23:50 Japan  Merchandise Trade Balance Total Medium ¥-1024.0 ¥-1100.8
Thursday Sep 19, 00:00 Chile  Army Day      
Thursday Sep 19, 00:00 Korea, Republic of  Harvest Festival      
Thursday Sep 19, 00:00 China  Mid-Autumn Festival      
Thursday Sep 19, 00:00 Japan  Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Speech Medium    
Thursday Sep 19, 01:30 Australia  RBA Bulletin Medium    
Thursday Sep 19, 01:30 Japan  BOJ Board Member Kiuchi Speech Low    
Thursday Sep 19, 01:30 Australia  RBA Foreign Exchange Transaction Low 436.0  
Thursday Sep 19, 04:30 Japan  All Industry Activity Index (MoM) Medium -0.6% 0.4%
Thursday Sep 19, 05:00 Australia  RBA Annual Report Low    
Thursday Sep 19, 05:00 Japan  Coincident Index Medium 105.5  
Thursday Sep 19, 05:00 Japan  Leading Economic Index Medium 107.2  
Thursday Sep 19, 06:00 Switzerland  Exports (MoM) Low 18.222  
Thursday Sep 19, 06:00 Switzerland  Imports (MoM) Low 15.841  
Thursday Sep 19, 06:00 Switzerland  Trade Balance Medium 2380.0 1475.0
Thursday Sep 19, 07:00 Hungary  Gross Wages (YoY) Low 3.7%  
Thursday Sep 19, 07:30 Switzerland  SNB Interest Rate Decision High 0.0% 0.0%
Thursday Sep 19, 07:30 Netherlands, The  Consumer Confidence Adj Low -33.0  
Thursday Sep 19, 07:30 Netherlands, The  Unemployment Rate s.a (3M) Low 8.7%  
Thursday Sep 19, 08:30 United Kingdom  Retail Sales (MoM) Low 1.1%  
Thursday Sep 19, 08:30 United Kingdom  Retail Sales (YoY) Medium 3.0%  
Thursday Sep 19, 08:30 United Kingdom  Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM) Low 1.1% 0.4%
Thursday Sep 19, 08:30 United Kingdom  Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) Medium 3.1% 3.4%
Thursday Sep 19, 09:00 Greece  Unemployment Rate (QoQ) Low 27.4%  
Thursday Sep 19, 10:00 United Kingdom  CBI Industrial Trends Survey – Orders (MoM) Low 0.0 2.0
Thursday Sep 19, 12:00 Norway  Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision Low 1.5%  
Thursday Sep 19, 12:00 Portugal  Current Account Balance Low €-0.142  
Thursday Sep 19, 12:30 United States  Continuing Jobless Claims Medium 2.871  
Thursday Sep 19, 12:30 United States  Current Account Low $-106.1 $-96.8
Thursday Sep 19, 12:30 United States  Initial Jobless Claims High 292.0 323.0
Thursday Sep 19, 12:30 Canada  Wholesale Sales (MoM) Medium -2.8% 1.6%
Thursday Sep 19, 13:00 Belgium  Consumer Confidence Index Low -12.0  
Thursday Sep 19, 13:00 Mexico  Private Spending (YoY) Low 2.6%  
Thursday Sep 19, 14:00 United States  American Petroleum Institute Monthly Report Low    
Thursday Sep 19, 14:00 United States  Existing Home Sales (MoM) High 5.39 5.25
Thursday Sep 19, 14:00 United States  Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) Medium 6.5% -2.6%
Thursday Sep 19, 14:00 United States  Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey Medium 9.3 10.0
Thursday Sep 19, 14:30 United States  EIA Natural Gas Storage change Low 65.0  
Thursday Sep 19, 15:00 United States  CB Leading Indicator (MoM) Medium 0.6% 0.6%
Thursday Sep 19, 21:00 Argentina  Primary Budget Balance (MoM) Low 156.2  
Thursday Sep 19, 22:45 New Zealand  Visitor Arrivals (YoY) Low 5.9%  
Thursday Sep 19, 23:50 Japan  Foreign bond investment Medium ¥-66.5  
Thursday Sep 19, 23:50 Japan  Foreign investment in Japan stocks Medium ¥185.4  
Friday Sep 20, 00:00 Korea, Republic of  Harvest Festival      
Friday Sep 20, 00:00 China  Mid-Autumn Festival      
Friday Sep 20, 00:00 Hong Kong SAR  The day following the Chinese Mid-Autumn Festival      
Friday Sep 20, 00:00 Japan  Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Speech Medium    
Friday Sep 20, 07:00 Denmark  Consumer Confidence Low 5.9  
Friday Sep 20, 07:00 Denmark  Retail Sales (YoY) Low 0.1%  
Friday Sep 20, 07:30 Netherlands, The  Consumer Spending Volume Low -2.4%  
Friday Sep 20, 08:00 Italy  Industrial Orders n.s.a (YoY) Low -1.1%  
Friday Sep 20, 08:00 Italy  Industrial Orders s.a (MoM) Low 3.2%  
Friday Sep 20, 08:00 Italy  Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY) Low -5.1%  
Friday Sep 20, 08:00 Italy  Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM) Low 0.1%  
Friday Sep 20, 08:30 United Kingdom  Public Sector Net Borrowing Medium £-1.635 £1.19
Friday Sep 20, 10:00 United Kingdom  10-y Bond Auction Low 2.976%  
Friday Sep 20, 10:30 United Kingdom  30-y Bond Auction Low 3.74%  
Friday Sep 20, 11:30 India  Bank Loan Growth Low 17.1%  
Friday Sep 20, 12:00 Brazil  Mid-month Inflation Low 0.16%  
Friday Sep 20, 12:30 Canada  Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) Medium 0.0% 0.1%
Friday Sep 20, 12:30 Canada  Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) Medium 1.4%  
Friday Sep 20, 12:30 Canada  Consumer Price Index – Core (MoM) Low -0.1%  
Friday Sep 20, 12:30 Canada  Consumer Price Index (MoM) Low 0.1% 0.1%
Friday Sep 20, 12:30 Canada  Consumer Price Index (YoY) Medium 1.3%  
Friday Sep 20, 13:00 Mexico  Jobless Rate Low 5.12%  
Friday Sep 20, 13:00 Mexico  Jobless Rate s.a Low 4.93%  
Friday Sep 20, 14:00 European Monetary Union  Consumer Confidence Medium -16.0 -14.0
Friday Sep 20, 16:30 United States  Fed’s George Speech Low    
Friday Sep 20, 16:55 United States  Fed’s Bullard speech Low    
Friday Sep 20, 17:45 United States  Fed Minneapolis’s Narayana Kocherlakota speech Low    
Friday Sep 20, 19:00 Argentina  Current Account BOP (MoM) Low -2380.0  
Friday Sep 20, 19:00 Argentina  Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) Low 3.0%

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METALS OUTLOOK: All About The Fed Next Week For Gold

(Kitco News) – Gold and other financial markets will watch the outcome of next week’s two-day Federal Reserve meeting to see if the Fed finally starts to reduce the stimulus program it has had in place for the past several years.

Gold prices fell sharply this week in part on the idea that after the conclusion of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting Tuesday and Wednesday, the Fed will announce some sort of tapering of its bond-buying program known as quantitative easing. The Fed embarked on the program to stimulate the economy, and gold prices benefitted from the ultra-loose monetary policy.

December gold futures fell Friday, settling at $1,308.60 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 5.6% on the week. December silver fell Friday, settling at $21.720 an ounce, down 9% on the week. 

In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 36 participants, 21 responded this week. Of those 21 participants, 10 see prices up, while 11 see prices down and one is neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders, money managers and technical-chart analysts.

In addition to the Fed, Afshin Nabavi, head of trading at trading house MKS (Switzerland) SA in Geneva, said there were three other factors that weighed on gold this week. First was the move to deal with Syria’s chemical weapons diplomatically and not militarily.

Second was lackluster physical gold demand, particularly out of India where new government restrictions have dented demand. Third was Friday’s news report out of Japan that President Obama would name Lawrence Summers as the next Fed chief.

“That weighed on markets, but when the White House came out and denied the report, the market came back a bit,” he said.

On Friday, December gold fell as low as $1,304.60. That’s close to the 50% retracement level from the June low of $1,180 and the August high of $1,434, technical analysts said. If the area can hold, gold might find short-term support, if it cannot, then gold could fall to the next area of support at $1,280.

After much discussion since May when Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke first floated the idea of curbing QE if the economic data warranted it, market participants and economists expect the Fed to give more concrete details of their plans. Right now the Fed is buying $85 billion monthly in U.S. Treasury and mortgage-backed securities.

Nabavi called what may happen at next week’s FOMC meeting “the million-dollar question.”

Results of Wall Street Journal survey show that two-thirds of market participants expect the FOMC to announce tapering next week. 

While the majority of economists and market participants expect some sort of tapering by the Fed, even if it is as little as $10 billion a month, Nabavi said he’s taking a contrarian opinion that the Fed won’t act at this meeting. If that’s the case, gold could see a swift rebound, he said.

Another director of trading at a bullion bank said if the Fed just talks about tapering in the future and takes no action, “we could see a real knee-jerk reaction higher in gold.”

He added, though, if the Fed does taper, gold could weaken further. Either way, he said, gold prices could be volatile, so market participants should brace for whipsaw action.

Adam Klopfeinstein, market strategist with Archer Financial Services, said there’s really no reason to think that the Fed won’t announce some sort of tapering next week and that gold will continue to fall.

“Gold’s in a bear pattern. By the end of the week I think we’ll be at least a little under $1,300, which really isn’t far from where we are now,” he said.

Bart Melek, vice president and director, head of commodity strategy, rates and foreign exchange research at TD Securities, said he cautions against taking a short position going into the meeting in case the Fed is more dovish. By focusing so intently on the cut to QE, Melek said traders may have overlooked “the very real possibility that two of the Fed’s policy thresholds may be adjusted down—the explicit unemployment rate threshold for Fed Funds hikes, which is currently at 6.5% and the tacit 7.0% guidepost at which QE3 will end.”

Melek said TDS expects the first to be lowered to 6.0% in the upcoming FOMC statement, with a rising probability that the second will also be lowered by a half-percentage point, to 6.5%.

In the short-term the market might overestimate the Fed’s actions, but longer-term, Melek said, gold’s trend id down. “A more (dovish Fed) tone or not, gold will trend down below $1,200 as 2014 unfolds, as we expect real yields to rise along with an improving economy,” he said.

Silver Slides

While gold’s losses grabbed the headlines, a few analysts noted that silver was hit harder than gold. That’s not unusual since silver historically is more volatile than gold. On Thursday, silver fell 6% to a four-week low and on Friday extended those losses.

“Silver is thus once again fully living up to its reputation of following gold’s price movements to a disproportionate extent,” said Commerzbank.

Barclays said after Thursday’s “very bearish” trade in silver further weakness in possible. They put downside targets at $21.68, $20.85 and $19.70. They said if silver rallies to $23, then that presents a selling opportunity.

Follow me on Twitter! If you want to keep up with metals news and features, then follow me on Twitter. It’s free, too. My account is @dcarlsonkitco

By Debbie Carlson dcarlson@kitco.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.
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Gold Drops as Assad Accepts Russian Plan, Analysts Start Pricing Fed’s Cut to QE

Gold Drops as Assad Accepts Russian Plan, Analysts Start Pricing Fed’s Cut to QE

 

BENCHMARK London prices for physical gold fell to $1363 lunchtime Tuesday, down 2.3% from Monday’s high as the Assad regime in Syria accepted a Russian-backed plan to give its chemical weapons to international control.

 

The Rupee meantime rose to a 2-session high after new Indian trade data showed gold imports falling and exports rising in August.

 

Premiums in Asian markets, over and above London’s benchmark gold price, eased further from the early summer’s record levels.

 

Gold futures volume on the US Comex was only half its recent average on Monday, according to Reuters data.

 

Sterling’s continued strength above $1.57 took the gold price for UK investors to its lowest level since Aug.22 beneath £870 per ounce.

 

With the Dollar gold price also nearing 3-week lows, “New headlines about Syria remain the focus,” says one dealing desk in a note.

 

“The decline in the oil price is adding additional short-term resistance to gold,” adds Standard Bank’s commodity team.

 

Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov yesterday used an off-the-cuff remark by US secretary of state John Kerry to begin talks over UN inspectors taking control of the Assad regime’s chemical arsenal.

 

Today France drafted a resolution for the United Nations security council, warning Syria of “serious consequences” if it then fails to comply.

 

European stock markets rose sharply Tuesday morning, while crude oil and major government bonds fell.

 

Silver extended Monday’s drop to stand at $23.15 per ounce, 3.1% below last week’s finish.

 

New data from China showed a jump in retail sales, industrial output and urban investment last month.

 

“We see the latest price action as a correction of the uptrend which began on June 28th,” said a technical note on gold from Scotia Mocatta after Monday’s $10 drop.

 

“Support is at 1352, which is the low from August 20th…Resistance is at the recent high at 1433.”

 

Looking ahead to next week’s US Federal Reserve announcement, “Tapering to the tune of $10bn-15bn has in our view been priced in,” says a note from Bank of America-Merrill Lynch analysts.

 

“But if the Fed is more dovish than that, [meaning it] tapers by less or delays tapering entirely, gold prices could rally in the short term.”

 

“Short covering,” says analysis from Japanese trading house Mitsui, “was a major factor in the rebound of [both silver and gold] and this may now be running out of momentum.”

 

Noting a slowdown in sales of gold from exchange-traded trust funds, “There are still optimists out there who see value in gold and silver,” says Mitsui analyst David Jollie.

 

“We are not expecting a short-term return to the heavy selling seen in the first part of the year.”

 

New York’s giant SPDR Gold Trust – the world’s largest exchange traded gold fund – shed 2 tonnes of bullion on Monday, but held 8 tonnes above the four-and-a-half year lows of last month.

 

“In the event of the Fed tapering its programme of QE,” says a note from London market maker Deutsche Bank, “we expect gold returns are vulnerable to higher US real yields and a stronger US Dollar.

 

“Given our outlook of a further rebound in global growth we view silver and PGMs as the likely out-performers.”

 

Adrian Ash

BullionVault

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A Bear Case For Lower Gold Price (With A Happy Ending)

Even the most cynical market watcher would find it hard to deny the robustness of August’s gold rally. On an intraday basis, the Comex December contract moved more than $160 per ounce from Aug. 7 to Aug. 28, a nearly 13% bounce. More impressively, the $1,434 August apogee marked a greater than $250 ascent form the frightening depths of June’s flirtation with $1,100 territory, a 21% rally.

Other good things happened for the yellow metal too. By mid-August it, broke to the upside from a descending channel of value destruction relative to the S&P 500 that began mid-November and bottomed in early July. This reversed a seemingly inexorable drain of investment money from the tarnished store of wealth to the brighter shine of ascendant U.S. equities. Gold has also regained value with respect to global commodities oil and copper after enduring bearish value destruction to both, roughly coincident with its stock market-associated descent.

Gold’s renaissance is reportedly thriving on the uncertainty of the moment: safe-haven sirens from Egypt and Syria with an impending, albeit delayed, U.S. punitive strike on the latter, “taper talk” surrounding U.S. Federal Reserve bond-buying program, crashing currencies in emerging markets, the upcoming G20 meeting, Friday’s monthly job report, German elections and the return of the U.S. Congress which now has the opportunity to not only shutdown the government but put its ham fist into the spiraling Middle East crisis. Oh…and September is typically a lousy month for stocks which should reinforce gold’s negative 1-month rolling correlation (presently a flexing strong -0.88).

Before goldbugs uncork another bottle of champagne, I sense something a little flat in the bubbly. With this backdrop of headlines, why has gold retreated from its August high? Given the history of the last several years, one might imagine $1,500 or $1,600 gold on the near horizon but Friday’s Comex close was a wilting $1,396.1 per ounce. By the time this column posts, the yellow metal may very well be darting back into $1,400 territory on a new headline but for how long? With all the fanfare about bull runs, gold price is about where it was in late-November, 2010. Pop…fizz.

My July 22, 2013 Kitco commentary stated:

One of the biggest hurdles for gold has been the massive quantitative easing, or QE, programs of developed nations. In theory, “printing money” should boost gold’s allure as witnessed by recent short-term rallies in gold price with every dovish comment from the U.S. Federal Reserve. These have proved short lived and each QE cycle since the Great Recession has caused steep erosion in value relative to key commodities before a serious recovery in gold price is possible – typically, after or near the end of each QE program.

Although this assertion may appear counter-intuitive to gold enthusiasts that pray the QE3 “taper” be light or delayed, the data are the data – time to review and update two key charts.

By the way, there is a happy ending to all of this: QE-infinity is off the table, inflation expectations will rise as surely as the sun someday and the long-term prospects for gold price are still bullishly intact.

Down but not out

The Eureka Miner’s Gold Value Index© (GVI©) is a powerful tool for understanding gold’s value relative to global commodities, assessing its curious relation with past and present QE cycles and anticipating the yellow metal’s near- and long-term market direction.
 
The GVI computes a currency independent value for gold against a basket of commodities in much the same manner as the US Dollar Index® (DXY) determines the value of the dollar relative to foreign currencies. The GVI basket includes Nymex (WTI) crude oil, Comex copper and Comex silver (Notes 1 & 2).

A seven-year history of the GVI is shown in Figure 1 (updated through Aug. 30):

Figure 1 – The Eureka Miner’s Gold Value Index© (mid-2006 to present)

As explained in the July commentaryAlong with a plot of the GVI (reddish brown line) are key dates and gold price benchmark records. The dashed orange line that goes from the lower-left to the upper-right of the graph is the seven-year value trend with boundaries of +/- two-standard deviations (dotted lines). The solid orange line represents a “market norm” attained on Nov. 26, 2010. This date lies roughly in the middle of a six-week interval when key commodity ratios returned to near historical norms and enjoyed a period of rock sold stability following the Great Recession.

Reassuringly, the GVI norm at 83.56 is only 0.6% above a GVI seven-year mean of 83.04 (updated through Aug. 30, Note 3).

For the first two QE cycles, gold is less valuable at the end of a cycle compared to the beginning. A similar trend remains in place for QE3.

Table 1 (updated through Aug. 30) compares these results:


* The QE3 cycle is ongoing; the value given is for Aug. 30, 2013

Table 1 – Gold value erosion during QE cycles

The three large red arrows of Fig. 1 indicate gold devaluation periods for each of the associated QE cycles. Even though gold has regained ground in August it is less clear that the value downtrend is over for QE3 (a detailed analysis of the two prior QE cycles is given in the July commentary).

The GVI reaction to QE3 continues to resemble a scaled down version of the QE1 cycle. The GVI peaks in November, 2012 to 103.7 after the September program start. The value then quickly erodes returning the GVI to near the market norm at current prices (third red arrow). No one knows when QE3 taperingwill begin but it is likely that gold will soon again trade at a discount to the commodity basket(i.e. below the solid orange line, Note 3).

Bear Case – The Gold Value “Wedge”

The Eureka Miner’s Gold Value Index© can be used to modify current gold prices as discussed in my Aug. 22, 2011 commentary. The resulting “value adjusted gold price”, or VAGP©, provides a metric for determining whether the yellow metal is trading at a premium or discount to its U.S. dollar value as a commodity.

Figure 2 is an updated plot of Comex gold price and VAGP from Sep. 2010 to the present:

Figure 2 – Value Adjusted Gold Price (Sept. 2010 to present)

On Nov. 26, 2012, the VAGP (reddish brown line) and Comex gold price (blue line) are equal at $1,362.4 per ounce (first yellow circle). After that point, gold trades at a discount to its commodity value until a few days before the U.S. debt downgrade (second yellow circle). From the downgrade to Friday’s close, gold has traded at a premium (blue above reddish VAGP line).

However, the premium has dramatically declined this year and on Aug. 15, the gold price came within a few cents of equaling its commodity-adjusted value. By Friday’s close, Comex gold is only $33.7 up from the Nov. 26, 2010 price with a premium of $46.8 per ounce. This is in stark contrast to the $300+ premiums of October 2012.

Importantly, the VAGP has made a succession of lower highs (upper dashed line) since the spring of 2011 while the lows have bounced off a floor in the mid-$1,200 per ounce area (lower dashed line). This was violated June 26 when the VAGP dropped to a new low of $1,173 per ounce (red circle), less than $60 below gold price (it’s important to note that on an intraday basis gold fell below $1,200 on June 28, this analysis is based on closing prices which have remained above $1,200 for 2013).

The “gold value wedge” exhibits a very bearish pattern. The VAGP came close but failed to break the upper boundary (point-1, upper dashed line) as gold prices peaked in August (Point 1, Fig. 2). VAGP has a level of support at the $1,250-level (lower dashed red line) and then the June 26, 2913 low of $1,173.4 per ounce (Point 2). Ominously, if premium transitions to discount, gold price could fall below either of these levels.

The Happy Ending

There is a happy ending to this story:

  1. There is no statistical evidence to indicate the seven-year gold value uptrend of Fig.1 is on the verge of collapse. Friday’s close shows gold value down but only by a rather sheepish 1.1-standard deviation below trend. Future deviations greater than 2-standard deviations would challenge this assertion – so far so good.
  2. QE1 and QE2 cycles suggest that sustainable gold rallies and even benchmark records are possible near the end or after the programs cease (Fig. 1). One could argue that the beginning of QE3 tapering marks the beginning of the end, that the recent gold rally is just resting and sustainable new highs are ahead. The true test of this view point would be a value adjusted gold price gapping above the red dashed line of Fig. 2 or approximately $1,410 per ounce (accompanied by a $1,460 gold price at the present premium).
  3. More realistically, the taper will be modest and QE3 will remain with the markets for some months to come. As such, it would be perfectly normal for gold to trade at a discount to key commodities again. This makes sense from a mean reversion perspective based on the 7-year mean or the GVI norm argument – after all they are less than 1% from each other presently and the GVI is only slightly above either.
  4. Even if (3) is correct, the GVI will swing to premium again someday (presumably after QE cycles have become only the subject of post-mortem studies) and gold prices will rise naturally again with inflation expectations.

 

That’s not all bad is it?

Note 1: For seven years, gold has enjoyed an upward trend in value relative to both oil and copper. In mid-2006 when gold was in the mid-$700 range, an ounce bought 10 barrels of Western Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude and 200 pounds of the red metal. Even with all the price and value carnage of the last several months, $1,400 gold still fetches 13 barrels of oil and over 430 pound of copper. However, this stands in contrast to mid-November of last year when $1,700+ gold bought 20+ barrels and 500 pounds. Comparing last Friday’s closing prices to Nov.13, 2012, gold has declined 19.3% in dollar price, 35.5% in value relative to oil and 14% relative to copper – updated Aug. 30.

Note 2: The GVI is assigned a value of 100 based on the morning prices of June 7, 2010, when the DOW fell below the intraday low of the so-called “Flash Crash” which occurred one month earlier. Since the commodity-based value of gold spiked that day, 100 represents a “high value” for gold.

Note 3: If the GVI is above this line of equilibrium (i.e > 83.56), gold is considered to trade at a premium to the basket of commodities of the previous note; a discount if below (<83.56).

By Richard Baker, CP Value Analytics
Eureka, Nevada

http://eurekaminer.blogspot.com/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

 

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Gold: 1,365 Support Broken

by Mingze Wu

Sometimes markets just perform beyond your expectations. Gold was already looking bearish following the break of 1,385 yesterday, but we thought that it “would be hard” for 1,365 to be broken in the short run as Stochastic readings would have been within the Oversold region when the 1,365 – 1,375 consolidation zone is breached. It seems that we got 2 out of 3 correct: prices did trade lower towards the 1,365 – 1,375 zone, stochastic readings were Oversold when that happened, but surprisingly price did manage to unlock the “Hard Difficulty” achievement by slicing through 1,365, reaching a low of 1,358 yesterday.

Prices rebounded after hitting the 1,358 low, sending us back up to around 1,365. This give us the ideal short-term bearish scenario described yesterday – where price will consolidate under 1,365 before finally pushing out lower which will help to extend the bearish reversal pattern seen on the Weekly Chart.

Hourly Chart

XAU/USD

All this sounds wonderful, doesn’t it, but bears shouldn’t pop the champagne just yet, as bulls haven’t rolled over and died. Prices pushed sharply lower following Obama’s official address to the American public on Syria. He indicated that diplomacy is the preferred route, and therefore he’s postponed the Congressional vote for military involvement. Furthermore, even if diplomacy failed, Obama promises that no “American boot” will land on Syria, implying that there will not be a long, drawn-out messy war, but merely surgical strikes against chemical weapons storage/production facilities in Syria.

The resulting decline in gold was promising, with prices pushing below yesterday’s swing low. But unfortunately for the bears, a new bearish cycle did not take flight, with bulls sending price quickly back up towards 1,365 once again.

Nonetheless, overall bearish pressure remains strong under 1,365. Price is currently being pushed down lower again, and with Stochastic readings being higher than yesterday’s levels, we have a broader space for the current bearish cycle even if we start moving lower from here. Ideally we should see Stochastic readings push up further–higher within the Overbought region before heading lower again, but that should not impede the bears’ ability to move towards the descending trendline and finding support around 1,330 – 1,345 in the short-term.

Original post

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Gold and Silver Prices Outlook for August 12-16

During last week, gold and silver bounced back. The depreciation of the US dollar against leading currencies may have contributed to the rally of gold and silver. The decision of RBA to cut its rate by 0.25 pp may have pulled up the Aussie dollar as this decision was anticipated.  In the U.S, jobless claims rose by 5k to reach 333k. Will gold and silver change direction this week?  Here is a short outlook for August 12th to August 16th; this includes a fundamental analysis of the main events and reports that may affect precious metals markets. These include: U.S core CPI and PPI, Philly fed survey, Japan’s GDP, U.S housing data, Canada’s manufacturing sales, U.S retail sales, U.S federal budget update, German ZEW economic sentiment, and U.S. jobless claims.

The price of gold edged up by 0.18% last week; conversely, the average price reached $1,298.52 /t. oz which was 1.42% below last week’s average rate. Gold ended the week at $1,312.50 /t. oz.

Silver price rallied by 2.45%; further, the average weekly rate was $19.87/t oz, which was 1.96% below last week’s rate.

Herein is a short overview that shows the main publications, events and decisions that will come to fruition next week between August 12th and August 16th and may affect precious metals.

Despite the recent rally of precious metals prices, their movement remains erratic and their direction remains unclear. For next week, let’s break down the upcoming reports and events by regions:

U.S

The main reports that will be published this week are: Philly Fed index, housing starts and building permits, CPI, PPI, retail sales and jobless claims. In the recent FOMC meeting, the FOMC didn’t offer any additional information regarding whether a tapering in September is imminent. The developments in the U.S economy could influence FOMC members that it’s time to slowdown the asset purchase program. If the inflation will remain low, this could keep the Fed’s worries low regarding potential inflation pressures due to QE3. Moreover, the upcoming reports could affect the direction of gold and silver prices via the speculations around whether the future steps of the FOMC. If these reports will beat expectations and will keep showing progress it could raise the odds of tapering QE3, which may adversely affect gold and silver. I still think the slow progress in the employment, the potential future budget cuts the government may implement and the low inflation will keep the asset purchase program in 2013.

China and India

The two leaders in importing gold and silver – India and China – will continue to play a role in the progress of gold and silver prices. If the demand for gold and silver in China and India will continue to rise, this could maintain the current levels of precious metals prices. Conversely, if the Indian Rupee will keep falling as it did in recent weeks this could curb the rise in demand for precious metals.

Europe

The situation in Europe hasn’t improved but Germany’s upcoming ZEW economic sentiment report might provide some positive signs of growth, which could also pull up the Euro. Additional EU reports will come out including: CPI and GDP for the second quarter. If these reports will continue to show little signs of progress, they could drag down the Euro, which tends to be correlated with precious metals.

Australia, Japan and Canada

These countries’ relations with gold and silver are mostly via their respective currencies. The Australian currency bounced back last week after the anticipated rate reduction to 2.5%. If the Aussie will change direction and fall this could pull down bullion prices. In Japan the minutes of the monetary policy meeting and the GDP report could also affect the yen. In Canada, Manufacturing Sales report could affect the Canadian dollar.

 

Finally, gold holdings of SPDR gold trust ETF continue to tumble: During August, the ETF’s gold holdings fell by 1.75% and by 32.55% during 2013 (up-to-date). Current gold holdings are at 911.13 tons. If the ETF’s gold holdings will keep declining, this could indicate the demand for gold as an investment will diminish.

I remain neutral of gold and silver. My guess is that gold and silver might slightly slide this week but their overall trend will remain unclear.

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Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets for August 12-16

The commodities markets are starting to pull up: Last week leading commodities including gold and silver rallied. Further, leading currencies including Aussie dollar and Japanese yen also appreciated against the US dollar during last week. Will the US dollar continue to weaken? Will commodities further advance their rally? This week several reports and events may affect the financial markets. These include: BOE rate decision, U.S core CPI and PPI, Philly fed survey, Japan’s GDP for the second quarter, U.S housing starts, Canada’s manufacturing sales, GB CPI, U.S retail sales, U.S federal budget update, German ZEW economic sentiment, and U.S. jobless claims.  Here is an economic outlook for the week of August 12th to August 16th regarding the U.S, Euro Area, Canada, Japan, and Great Britain.   

(All times GMT):

Monday, August 12th

00:50 –Japan Second Quarter GDP 2013 (preliminary): During the first quarter of 2013, Japan’s GDP grew by 4.1% in annual terms. The current expectations are that the second quarter of 2013 grew in annul terms at a faster pace than in the preceding quarter; if the growth rate will continue to rise, this may positively affect commodities prices;

19:00 –U.S. Federal Budget Balance: This upcoming report will refer to July 2013; this report indicates the government debt growth and thus may affect the changes in U.S dollar. In the recent report regarding June the deficit fell by $116.5 billion; if the deficit will continue to contract, it could influence U.S policymakers their decision about future budget cuts;

Tuesday, August 13th

00:50 – Minutes of Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Meeting: Bank of Japan didn’t change it monetary policy. The minutes may offer insight regarding behind the future plans of BOJ; this news may affect the Japanese yen and consequently commodities prices;

09:30 – GB CPI (July 2013): In the previous report regarding June 2013, the CPI increased again to an annual rate of 2.9%; if the inflation rate will continue to advance it may eventually affect the decision of BOE regarding changes to its monetary policy;

10:00 – German ZEW economic sentiment: The forthcoming report will refer to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany for July. In June, the ZEW indicator for Germany decreased to 36.3 points; if Germany’s economic sentiment will keep falling, the Euro will plausibly weakened against other currencies including the US dollar;

10:00 –EU Industrial Production: this report will show the monthly changes in the industrial production as of July; as of June, the production fell by 0.3%; this report may affect the euro/usd;

13:30 –U.S. Retail Sales Report: this monthly report presents the developments in retail sales and food services for July; in the recent report regarding June, the retail sales rose again by 0.6% from the last month; gasoline stations sales also increased by 0.7% in June compared to May 2013; this report could signal the developments in U.S’s gasoline demand and thus may affect U.S oil prices;

Wednesday, August 14th

09:30 – Great Britain Claimant Count Change: As of last month, the number of unemployed in GB had declined by 21.2k; the rate of unemployment remained flat at 7.8%;

09:30 –MPC Asset Purchase and Rate Votes: in the previous MPC meeting, the Bank left the rate unchanged at 0.5% and the asset purchase program at £375 billion; this vote count will show how many MPC members voted on any changes to the asset purchase program or interest rate;

10:00 –EU Second Quarter GDP 2013 (preliminary): In the first quarter of 2013, the EU economy contracted by 0.2%. If the EU economy will continue to contract, this could drag down the Eur;

Tentative – German 10 Year Bond Auction: the German government will have its monthly bond auction; in the last bond auction, which was held at the middle of July, the average rate reached 1.57% – its highest level since this year;

13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report will present the developments in the PPI during July 2013, i.e. the inflation rate from the producers’ side. In the last report regarding June, this index for finished goods rose by 0.8% compared with May’s level and the core PPI by 0.2%; this news might affect commodities prices;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Update: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on August 9th;

Thursday, August 15th

09:30 – GB Retails Sales (July 2013): This report shows the changes in the retails sales in Great Britain for July 2013. It may affect the path of the British Pound currency. In the previous report regarding June 2013, retails sales slightly rose by 0.2%;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  this weekly update will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on August 9th; in the last report the jobless claims rose by 5k to reach 333k; the next weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and equities markets;

13:30 – U.S Core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report will refer to the main developments in the core consumer price index for July 2013. According to the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics, during June, the CPI rose by 0.5% (month-over-month); the core CPI edged up by 0.2%; the core index increased over the past twelve months by 1.6%.

14:00 – U.S. TIC Long Term Purchases: The Treasury International Capital monthly report will present the shifts the purchases and sales of US long term treasuries for June 2013. In the recent report regarding May 2013, the net foreign sales of U.S Treasuries longer-term notes reached a deficit of $27.2 billion;

15:00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey estimates the growth of the US manufacturing sectors. In the recent survey regarding July, the growth rate rose again from +12.5 in June to +19.8 in July. If the index will continue to recover, it may positively affect not only U.S Dollar but also U.S equity markets and commodities (the previous Philly Fed review);

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas marketwill pertain to the latest developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of August 9th;

Friday, August 16th

10:00 – Euro Area CPI: Based on the latest update the annual CPI rose to 1.6%, which is still below ECB’s target inflation; if the inflation will continue to rise, it could lower the odds of ECB cutting again its cash rate;

13:30 – Canada Manufacturing Sales (June 2013): This report will refer to the manufacturing sales in Canada as of June. It may affect the USD/CAD currencies pair, which is strongly correlated with commodities. In the previous report regarding May 2013, manufacturing sales increased by 0.7%;

13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: The U.S Census Bureau will come out with its U.S housing starts monthly update for July 2013; this report was historically linked with gold price – as housing starts falls, gold prices tended to rise the next day (even when controlling to the U.S dollar effect); in thelatest monthly report, the adjusted annual rate reached 836,000 in June 2013, which was 9.9% below May’s rate;

13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: In the previous update, during May building permits declined by 7.5% (M-o-M) as the adjusted annual rate of building permits reached 911,000. If building permits will continue to dwindle, it may indicate that the U.S housing market’s recovery (from this aspect) is slowing down (the recent U.S building permits update);

14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary):University of Michigan will publish its preliminary consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could offer information regarding the latest developments in U.S consumers’ sentiment; According to the previous update, the sentiment index rallied to 83.9.

 

For further reading:

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Gold’s Fear And Uncertainty Trade Is Dead

Robert Wagner

I wrote an article way back in March 2013 about how fear was one of if not the main pillar supporting the price of gold. I also wrote an article detailing all the “pillars” supporting gold and why I don’t own gold. To me gold is a rather simple trade to understand. Fear and lack of alternatives have driven gold to never before reached levels, but as fear subsides and interest rates increase, gold loses its main “pillars” of support. I find the “buy gold because of inflation” totally unconvincing in these economic conditions. If people are buying gold as a hedge against inflation, they will have a long wait, and gold will reach a bottom far below where it is today before a new uptrend develops discounting the real actuality of inflation. Buying gold in anticipation of inflation requires having the right expectations, and expecting inflation in the near or intermediate term is simply relying on a very outdated and erroneous economic forecasting model. I’ve found no objective market based indicator that shows any sign of inflation or even the fear of inflation…besides gold. The gold market is in total contradiction of the bond market, and I trust the bond market a whole lot more than I trust the gold market.

Those views, while unpopular with some/many, seem to be catching on in the financial press. Just today, 08/09/2013, The headline reads “The Gold Fear Trade Is Dead.” In the linked video Damon Vickers, president of Damon Vickers and Co., tells The Street’s Joe Deaux that “the gold fear trade is dead.” What I like about the video is that he names names of his favorite gold cheerleaders, highlighting just how wrong they have been. Investors should take note of the list because investing is about making money and risk management, not blindly following charismatic personalities. I still hear all the time about how Peter Schiff called the mortgage bubble. That may be true, but so did I and a whole lot of other people, but that has nothing to do with what is happening in the gold market. Even broken clocks are correct twice a day, and Peter Schiff has been dead wrong on gold since is peaked 2 years ago.

In the above linked video Damon Vickers also make a few other comments that support many of the views I’ve expressed in many articles that signal a lower price for gold:

1) The “Fear trade is dead.”

2) Equities are breaking out on the upside providing a better investment alternative than gold. My favorite way to express this concept it thatgun manufacturers have greatly outperformed gold during a time when gold should have dominated all other investments according to the gold bugs.

3) The bias continues to be down for gold.

4) Gold in “not a trade to be in, you can be in it from the short side.”

5) Sell gold “into strength, the trend is down.”

Another video out today highlights how “uncertainty” is also subsiding, which should be another nail in the coffin of the gold bull market. The better things look for the economy and the future, the worse things will get for gold. Good news is bad news for gold.

Stocks and ETFs that this lack of fear and uncertainty should impact:

  • SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)
  • iShares Gold Trust (IAU)
  • iShares Silver Trust (SLV)
  • Randgold Resource (GOLD)
  • AngloGold Ashanti (AU
  • IAMGOLD Corp (IAG)
  • Asanko Gold Inc (AKG)
  • AUREUS (ARSMF)
  • Gold Fields Limited (GFI)

In conclusion, one of the main pillars supporting gold, the fear trade, is “dead.” I’ve been saying that for a long time, but now it is making the headlines. The further and further we get from 2008, the more and more evidence accumulates proving just how wrong the anti-Fed, doom and gloom, end of the world, collapse of the US dollar, hyperinflation is coming, sound money, gold is currency, gold bug crowd has been. With both uncertainty and fear subsiding, the path of least resistance for gold is down.

Disclaimer: This article is not an investment recommendation. Any analysis presented in this article is illustrative in nature, is based on an incomplete set of information and has limitations to its accuracy, and is not meant to be relied upon for investment decisions. Please consult a qualified investment advisor. The information upon which this material is based was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified. Therefore, the author cannot guarantee its accuracy. Any opinions or estimates constitute the author’s best judgment as of the date of publication, and are subject to change without notice.

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Gold: Why I’m Bullish In The Short-Term

Steve Nicastro

I believe we have seen the bottom in gold (GLD), with the fall under $1200 in June marking the low point. There are several reasons why I have come to this conclusion which I will outline below. I believe now is a great time for investors who are looking to initiate new positions in gold and related securities, or those looking to average down their positions.

Bearish Sentiment Extreme in June

When gold hit $1179 on June 28, it was hard to find anyone on this planet who was bullish on the yellow metal. It felt like every media outlet, newspaper and analyst on TV was calling for gold to drop to be $1,000 or lower.

I saw this overly bearish sentiment and felt it was a great contrarian indicator, so I bought some shares of gold miners which were even more depressed than the actual metal (which is predictable – miners overreact to the price both ways).

Here is a chart from TechnicalWatch.com which shows just how poor sentiment on gold was in June:


(Click to enlarge)

High Cost Mines Shut Down

Next, when the price of gold hit those depressed levels in June, it also touched the average all-in sustaining cost of producing an ounce of gold, which sits around $1200-1250 an ounce. The drop in gold has already prompted the shut-down of several high-cost mines, delay or eliminate expansion projects and scale back exploration costs.

For example, in South Africa alone it is reported by ArabianMoney.netthat most mines there require a price of $1,400 or higher just to be profitable. South Africa miners also suffer from strikes

I believe several smaller, high cost operations in Canada are also facing mine closure. Companies like Lake Shore Gold (LSG), Claude Resources (CGR) and Wesdome Gold Mines (TSE-WDO) are just a few which could be in trouble should gold remain at these levels. They all have total all-in cash costs well above the current price of gold.

All these factors are bullish for the metal in the long-term, but I also feel that a lot of investors out there are getting this and will not wait for a further pullback in prices to start accumulating gold.

While it is certainly possible for a commodity to trade below the cost of production for a period of time (Example: Copper in late 90s), I don’t think gold will face this predicament as there is still heavy demand from Central Banks such as China. Last year, China consumed 776 tons of gold, and this year that is expected to jump to about 1,000 tons, according to the World Gold Council.

I believe the demand will continue to be there from these banks – but will the supply? I don’t think it will.

Why The Fed is Full of It

Next up, Fed officials have hinted that the announcement of tapering is possible at the upcoming FOMC meeting on Sept. 17-18. But the economy is nowhere near where the Fed wants it to be as they have targeted an unemployment rate of 6.5 percent and inflation of 2.5 percent.

The unemployment rate is down to 7.6 percent (with mostly part-time jobs added I might add) and inflation remains under 2 percent.

Credit: Yahoo! Finance

My question to readers is this: Why would the Fed would risk the entire “recovery” by beginning to taper in September? Removing the juice too soon could be disastrous, and I think Bernanke realizes this.

If they announce that it’s too early to taper, which I think they will, you could see a fairly quick rise in gold as shorts scramble to cover their positions. Even those bearish on gold need to realize the risk/reward scenario for shorting gold here is pretty awful.

Technicals are Getting Better

Gold continues to flirt with the 50-day moving average of $1312 an ounce. As we speak, we are actually right on the line. If we can break out above $1320 I believe a short-term rally could be in store to $1350-$1400. I also believe it is possible that we get over the 200-day moving average of $1532 at the end of the year.

Credit: StockCharts.com
(Click to enlarge)

Seasonal Strength is Approaching

What is the best month to buy gold? It’s September and November. Guess what months are the worst? March and June.

Credit: Bloomberg

If history repeats, would should see a pretty spectacular finish to 2013.

Gold – The Risk/Reward is Pretty Good

In conclusion I see far more upside in the price of gold in the short-term than I do on the downside. Gold has a number of potential catalysts coming up, including a big FOMC meeting in September. All eyes will be on the Fed and whether or not they announce tapering.

Worst case, gold does not break out above the 50-day moving average and we see another drop down to the $1150-1200 level. The upside still outweighs the downside in the long-term so I believe that any dip to those levels should be bought.

Personally I will continue to buy quality mining companies with low production costs such as Goldcorp (GG) and Alamos Gold (AGI). For more leverage (but also more risk) investors should consider Allied Nevada (ANV), which I believe has substantial upside and could be a takeover candidate. Besides buying the actual physical metal, the safer play would be to invest in the royalty companies – my favorite of the group is Silver Wheaton (SLW) and Sandstorm Gold (SAND). Best of luck.

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Myfxbook Weekly Economic Calendar For Aug 11, 2013-Aug 17, 2013‏

Date Country Event Impact Previous Consensus
Sunday Aug 11, 00:00 Qatar  Eid al-Fitr      
Sunday Aug 11, 21:00 Korea, Republic of  Import Price Growth (YoY) Low -4.3%  
Sunday Aug 11, 21:00 Korea, Republic of  Export Price Growth (YoY) Low -2.0%  
Sunday Aug 11, 22:45 New Zealand  Food Price Index (MoM) Low 2.1%  
Sunday Aug 11, 23:50 Japan  Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (MoM) Low 0.1%  
Sunday Aug 11, 23:50 Japan  Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (YoY) Low 1.2% 1.9%
Sunday Aug 11, 23:50 Japan  Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) High 1.0% 0.9%
Sunday Aug 11, 23:50 Japan  Gross Domestic Product Annualized High 4.1% 3.6%
Sunday Aug 11, 23:50 Japan  Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) Low -1.1%  
Monday Aug 12, 00:00 Qatar  Eid al-Fitr      
Monday Aug 12, 00:00 Singapore  Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) Low 1.8%  
Monday Aug 12, 00:00 Singapore  Gross Domestic Product (YoY) Low 0.2%  
Monday Aug 12, 04:30 Japan  Industrial Production (MoM) Low 1.9% -3.1%
Monday Aug 12, 04:30 Japan  Industrial Production (YoY) Medium -1.1%  
Monday Aug 12, 04:30 Japan  Capacity Utilization Low 2.3%  
Monday Aug 12, 06:00 Japan  Machine Tool Orders (YoY) Medium -12.4%  
Monday Aug 12, 06:45 France  Current Account Low €-4.1  
Monday Aug 12, 07:00 Slovakia  Core Inflation (MoM) Low 0.2%  
Monday Aug 12, 07:00 Slovakia  Core Inflation (YoY) Low 1.7%  
Monday Aug 12, 07:00 Slovakia  Headline Inflation (MoM) Low 0.1%  
Monday Aug 12, 07:00 Slovakia  Headline Inflation (YoY) Low 1.6%  
Monday Aug 12, 07:00 Turkey  Industrial Production (YoY) Low 1.0%  
Monday Aug 12, 07:00 Romania  Consumer Price Index Low 5.4%  
Monday Aug 12, 07:15 Switzerland  Real Retail Sales (YoY) Medium 1.8% 2.4%
Monday Aug 12, 08:00 Czech Republic  Current Account (MoM) Low 1.94  
Monday Aug 12, 09:00 France  10-y Bond Auction Low 2.32%  
Monday Aug 12, 10:00 Portugal  Consumer Price Index (MoM) Low 0.1%  
Monday Aug 12, 10:00 Portugal  Consumer Price Index (YoY) Low 1.0%  
Monday Aug 12, 12:00 India  Cumulative Industrial Output Low 0.1%  
Monday Aug 12, 12:00 Poland  Current Account Low €574.0  
Monday Aug 12, 12:00 India  Industrial Output Low -1.6%  
Monday Aug 12, 18:00 United States  Monthly Budget Statement Medium $116.5 $-90.0
Monday Aug 12, 23:01 United Kingdom  RICS Housing Price Balance Medium 21.0% 25.0%
Monday Aug 12, 23:50 Japan  Machinery Orders (MoM) Low 10.5% -7.2%
Monday Aug 12, 23:50 Japan  Machinery Orders (YoY) Medium 16.5% 2.4%
Monday Aug 12, 23:50 Japan  BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes High    
Tuesday Aug 13, 01:00 Australia  Consumer Inflation Expectation Medium 2.6%  
Tuesday Aug 13, 01:30 Australia  National Australia Bank’s Business Conditions Low -8.0  
Tuesday Aug 13, 01:30 Australia  National Australia Bank’s Business Confidence Medium 0.0  
Tuesday Aug 13, 01:30 Hungary  Consumer Price Index (YoY) Low 1.9%  
Tuesday Aug 13, 06:00 Germany  Wholesale Price Index (MoM) Low -0.4%  
Tuesday Aug 13, 06:00 Germany  Wholesale Price Index (YoY) Low 0.7%  
Tuesday Aug 13, 06:00 Germany  Consumer Price Index (MoM) Medium 0.1% 0.5%
Tuesday Aug 13, 06:00 Germany  Consumer Price Index (YoY) High 1.8% 1.9%
Tuesday Aug 13, 06:00 Germany  Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) Medium 0.1% 0.4%
Tuesday Aug 13, 06:00 Germany  Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) High 1.9% 1.9%
Tuesday Aug 13, 07:00 Spain  Consumer Price Index (MoM) Low 0.1% -0.2%
Tuesday Aug 13, 07:00 Spain  Consumer Price Index (YoY) Low 2.1% 2.0%
Tuesday Aug 13, 07:00 Spain  HICP (MoM) Low 0.1% -0.5%
Tuesday Aug 13, 07:00 Spain  HICP (YoY) Low 2.2% 1.9%
Tuesday Aug 13, 07:30 Sweden  Consumer Price Index (MoM) Low -0.2%  
Tuesday Aug 13, 07:30 Sweden  Consumer Price Index (YoY) Low -0.5%  
Tuesday Aug 13, 07:30 Netherlands, The  Retail Sales (YoY) Low -0.6%  
Tuesday Aug 13, 08:00 Norway  Retail Sales Low -0.6%  
Tuesday Aug 13, 08:30 United Kingdom  Consumer Price Index (MoM) Medium -0.2%  
Tuesday Aug 13, 08:30 United Kingdom  Consumer Price Index (YoY) High 2.9%  
Tuesday Aug 13, 08:30 United Kingdom  Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) High 2.3%  
Tuesday Aug 13, 08:30 United Kingdom  DCLG House Price Index (YoY) Low 2.9%  
Tuesday Aug 13, 08:30 United Kingdom  PPI Core Output (MoM) n.s.a Low 0.0%  
Tuesday Aug 13, 08:30 United Kingdom  PPI Core Output (YoY) n.s.a Medium 1.0%  
Tuesday Aug 13, 08:30 United Kingdom  Producer Price Index – Input (MoM) n.s.a Low 0.2% 1.2%
Tuesday Aug 13, 08:30 United Kingdom  Producer Price Index – Input (YoY) n.s.a Medium 4.2%  
Tuesday Aug 13, 08:30 United Kingdom  Producer Price Index – Output (MoM) n.s.a Low 0.1% 0.3%
Tuesday Aug 13, 08:30 United Kingdom  Producer Price Index – Output (YoY) n.s.a Medium 2.0%  
Tuesday Aug 13, 08:30 United Kingdom  Retail Price Index (MoM) Low -0.1% 3.1%
Tuesday Aug 13, 08:30 United Kingdom  Retail Price Index (YoY) Low 3.3%  
Tuesday Aug 13, 09:00 European Monetary Union  Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) Low -0.3% 0.7%
Tuesday Aug 13, 09:00 European Monetary Union  Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) Medium -1.3% 0.3%
Tuesday Aug 13, 09:00 Germany  ZEW Survey – Current Situation Medium 10.6 11.5
Tuesday Aug 13, 09:00 Germany  ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment Medium 36.3 40.5
Tuesday Aug 13, 09:00 European Monetary Union  ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment High 32.8 37.4
Tuesday Aug 13, 11:30 United States  NFIB Business Optimism Index Low 93.5 95.4
Tuesday Aug 13, 12:30 United States  Export Price Index (MoM) Low -0.1% 0.0%
Tuesday Aug 13, 12:30 United States  Export Price Index (YoY) Low 0.8%  
Tuesday Aug 13, 12:30 United States  Import Price Index (MoM) Medium -0.2% 0.3%
Tuesday Aug 13, 12:30 United States  Import Price Index (YoY) Medium 0.2%  
Tuesday Aug 13, 12:30 United States  Retail Sales (MoM) High 0.4% 0.4%
Tuesday Aug 13, 12:30 United States  Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) High 0.0% 0.3%
Tuesday Aug 13, 12:55 United States  Redbook index (MoM) Low 1.0%  
Tuesday Aug 13, 12:55 United States  Redbook index (YoY) Low 3.7%  
Tuesday Aug 13, 14:00 United States  Business Inventories Medium 0.1% 0.3%
Tuesday Aug 13, 16:45 United States  Fed’s Lockhart speech Low    
Tuesday Aug 13, 21:45 New Zealand  Retail Sales (QoQ) Low 0.5% 1.25%
Tuesday Aug 13, 22:00 Chile  BCCH Interest Rate Low 5.0%  
Tuesday Aug 13, 22:45 New Zealand  Retail Sales ex Autos (QoQ) Medium 0.6%  
Wednesday Aug 14, 00:30 Australia  Westpac Consumer Confidence Medium -0.1%  
Wednesday Aug 14, 00:30 Australia  Westpac Consumer Confidence Index Low 102.1  
Wednesday Aug 14, 01:30 Australia  Wage Price Index (QoQ) Low 0.7% 0.8%
Wednesday Aug 14, 01:30 Australia  Wage Price Index (YoY) Low 3.2%  
Wednesday Aug 14, 05:30 France  Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) Low -0.2% 0.1%
Wednesday Aug 14, 05:30 France  Gross Domestic Product (YoY) Medium -0.4%  
Wednesday Aug 14, 06:00 Germany  Gross Domestic Product n.s.a (YoY) High -1.4% 0.2%
Wednesday Aug 14, 06:00 Germany  Gross Domestic Product s.a (QoQ) Medium 0.1% 0.6%
Wednesday Aug 14, 06:00 Germany  Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY) High -0.2%  
Wednesday Aug 14, 06:00 Finland  Consumer Price Index (YoY) Low 1.4%  
Wednesday Aug 14, 06:00 Finland  Gross Domestic Product (YoY) Low -0.8%  
Wednesday Aug 14, 06:30 India  WPI Inflation Low 4.7%  
Wednesday Aug 14, 06:45 France  Consumer Price Index (EU norm) final (MoM) Low 0.2%  
Wednesday Aug 14, 06:45 France  Consumer Price Index (EU norm) final (YoY) Low 1.0%  
Wednesday Aug 14, 06:45 France  Inflation ex-tobacco (MoM) Low 0.2%  
Wednesday Aug 14, 06:45 France  Nonfarm Payrolls (QoQ) Low -0.1%  
Wednesday Aug 14, 07:00 Slovakia  EU Norm Inflation (MoM) Low 0.2%  
Wednesday Aug 14, 07:00 Slovakia  EU Norm Inflation (YoY) Low 1.7%  
Wednesday Aug 14, 07:00 Hungary  Gross Domestic Product (YoY) Low -0.9%  
Wednesday Aug 14, 07:00 Slovakia  Gross Domestic Product Prelim (YoY) Low 0.9%  
Wednesday Aug 14, 07:00 Hungary  Industrial Output (YoY) Low -2.1%  
Wednesday Aug 14, 07:15 Switzerland  Producer and Import Prices (MoM) Medium 0.1% 0.2%
Wednesday Aug 14, 07:15 Switzerland  Producer and Import Prices (YoY) Medium 0.2% 0.4%
Wednesday Aug 14, 07:30 Netherlands, The  Gross Domestic Product n.s.a (YoY) Low -1.8%  
Wednesday Aug 14, 07:30 Netherlands, The  Gross Domestic Product s.a (QoQ) Low -0.4%  
Wednesday Aug 14, 07:30 Sweden  Industrial Production (YoY) Low -0.8%  
Wednesday Aug 14, 07:30 Sweden  New Orders Manufacturing (YoY) Low 1.7%  
Wednesday Aug 14, 07:30 Sweden  Industrial Production (MoM) Low -0.5%  
Wednesday Aug 14, 08:00 Italy  Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) Low    
Wednesday Aug 14, 08:00 Italy  Gross Domestic Product (YoY) Low    
Wednesday Aug 14, 08:00 Poland  Gross Domestic Product Qtr (YoY) Low 0.5%  
Wednesday Aug 14, 08:30 United Kingdom  Average Earnings excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) Low 1.0%  
Wednesday Aug 14, 08:30 United Kingdom  Average Earnings including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) Medium 1.7% 2.1%
Wednesday Aug 14, 08:30 United Kingdom  Bank of England Minutes High    
Wednesday Aug 14, 08:30 United Kingdom  BOE MPC Vote Cut High 0.0  
Wednesday Aug 14, 08:30 United Kingdom  BOE MPC Vote Hike High 0.0  
Wednesday Aug 14, 08:30 United Kingdom  BOE MPC Vote Unchanged High 9.0  
Wednesday Aug 14, 08:30 United Kingdom  Claimant Count Change High -21.2  
Wednesday Aug 14, 08:30 United Kingdom  Claimant Count Rate Medium 4.4%  
Wednesday Aug 14, 08:30 United Kingdom  ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) Medium 7.8% 7.8%
Wednesday Aug 14, 09:00 European Monetary Union  Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) Medium -0.3% 0.1%
Wednesday Aug 14, 09:00 European Monetary Union  Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) High   -0.9%
Wednesday Aug 14, 09:00 Switzerland  ZEW Survey – Expectations Medium 4.8  
Wednesday Aug 14, 09:00 Portugal  Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) Low -0.4%  
Wednesday Aug 14, 09:00 Portugal  Gross Domestic Product (YoY) Low -4.0%  
Wednesday Aug 14, 11:00 South Africa  Retail Sales (YoY) Low 6.2%  
Wednesday Aug 14, 11:00 United States  MBA Mortgage Applications Low 0.2%  
Wednesday Aug 14, 12:00 Brazil  Retail Sales (MoM) Low 0.0%  
Wednesday Aug 14, 12:00 Poland  Consumer Price Index (MoM) Low 0.0%  
Wednesday Aug 14, 12:00 Poland  Consumer Price Index (YoY) Low 0.2%  
Wednesday Aug 14, 12:00 Poland  M3 Money Supply (YoY) Low 7.1%  
Wednesday Aug 14, 12:30 United States  Producer Price Index (MoM) Low 0.8% 0.4%
Wednesday Aug 14, 12:30 United States  Producer Price Index (YoY) Medium 2.5%  
Wednesday Aug 14, 12:30 United States  Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) Low 0.2% 0.2%
Wednesday Aug 14, 12:30 United States  Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) Medium 1.7%  
Wednesday Aug 14, 14:30 United States  EIA Crude Oil Stocks change Medium -1.32  
Wednesday Aug 14, 22:30 New Zealand  Business NZ PMI Medium 54.7  
Wednesday Aug 14, 23:50 Japan  Foreign bond investment Medium ¥689.9  
Wednesday Aug 14, 23:50 Japan  Foreign bond investment Medium ¥689.9  
Wednesday Aug 14, 23:50 Japan  Foreign investment in Japan stocks Medium ¥-42.2  
Thursday Aug 15, 00:00 Poland   Assumption of the Blessed Virgin Mary      
Thursday Aug 15, 00:00 Austria  Assumption      
Thursday Aug 15, 00:00 Chile  Assumption Day      
Thursday Aug 15, 00:00 Spain  Assumption Day      
Thursday Aug 15, 00:00 France  Assumption Day      
Thursday Aug 15, 00:00 Italy  Assumption Day      
Thursday Aug 15, 00:00 Belgium  Assumption Day      
Thursday Aug 15, 00:00 Greece  Assumption Day      
Thursday Aug 15, 00:00 Lithuania  Assumption Day      
Thursday Aug 15, 00:00 Portugal  Assumption Day      
Thursday Aug 15, 00:00 Romania  Assumption of Mary      
Thursday Aug 15, 00:00 India  Independence Day      
Thursday Aug 15, 00:00 Korea, Republic of  Liberation Day      
Thursday Aug 15, 01:00 Australia  Consumer Inflation Expectation Medium 2.6%  
Thursday Aug 15, 01:30 China  FDI – Foreign Direct Investment (YTD)(YoY) Medium 4.9%  
Thursday Aug 15, 01:30 Australia  RBA Foreign Exchange Transaction Low 993.0  
Thursday Aug 15, 04:00 Indonesia  Bank Indonesia Rate Low 6.5%  
Thursday Aug 15, 05:00 Czech Republic  Producer Price Index (YoY) Low 0.7%  
Thursday Aug 15, 05:00 Singapore  Retail Sales (MoM) Low 2.1  
Thursday Aug 15, 06:00 Singapore  Retail Sales (YoY) Low 3.2  
Thursday Aug 15, 07:00 Finland  Current Account Low €0.3  
Thursday Aug 15, 07:00 Turkey  3mth quarterly jobless average Low 9.3%  
Thursday Aug 15, 07:00 Turkey  Current Account Balance Low $-7.52  
Thursday Aug 15, 07:00 Czech Republic  Producer Price Index (MoM) Low 0.1%  
Thursday Aug 15, 07:30 Netherlands, The  Unemployment Rate s.a (3M) Low 8.5%  
Thursday Aug 15, 08:00 Turkey  Budget Balance Low -1.2  
Thursday Aug 15, 08:00 Norway  Trade Balance Low 32.0  
Thursday Aug 15, 08:30 United Kingdom  Retail Sales (MoM) Low 0.2% 0.7%
Thursday Aug 15, 08:30 United Kingdom  Retail Sales (YoY) Medium 2.2%  
Thursday Aug 15, 08:30 United Kingdom  Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM) Low 0.2%  
Thursday Aug 15, 08:30 United Kingdom  Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) Medium 2.1%  
Thursday Aug 15, 09:50 United Kingdom  10-y Bond Auction Low 2.584%  
Thursday Aug 15, 12:30 United States  Consumer Price Index (MoM) Medium 0.5% 0.3%
Thursday Aug 15, 12:30 United States  Consumer Price Index (YoY) High 1.8% 2.0%
Thursday Aug 15, 12:30 United States  Consumer Price Index Core s.a Low 233.64  
Thursday Aug 15, 12:30 United States  Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) Medium 0.2% 0.2%
Thursday Aug 15, 12:30 United States  Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) High 1.6% 1.7%
Thursday Aug 15, 12:30 United States  Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) Low 233.5 233.68
Thursday Aug 15, 12:30 United States  Continuing Jobless Claims Medium 3.018  
Thursday Aug 15, 12:30 United States  Initial Jobless Claims High 333.0 334.0
Thursday Aug 15, 12:30 United States  NY Empire State Manufacturing Index Low 9.46 10.2
Thursday Aug 15, 13:00 United States  Net Long-Term TIC Flows Medium $-27.2 $31.3
Thursday Aug 15, 13:00 United States  Total Net TIC Flows Low $56.4  
Thursday Aug 15, 13:15 United States  Capacity Utilization Low 77.8% 77.9%
Thursday Aug 15, 13:15 United States  Industrial Production (MoM) Medium 0.3% 0.5%
Thursday Aug 15, 14:00 United States  NAHB Housing Market Index Medium 57.0 57.0
Thursday Aug 15, 14:00 United States  Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey Medium 19.8 15.6
Thursday Aug 15, 14:30 Canada  BoC Review Medium    
Thursday Aug 15, 14:30 United States  EIA Natural Gas Storage change Low 96.0  
Thursday Aug 15, 21:00 Korea, Republic of  Producer Price Index Growth Low -0.4%  
Friday Aug 16, 01:30 Australia  Westpac Leading Index (MoM) Medium 0.2%  
Friday Aug 16, 08:00 European Monetary Union  Current Account n.s.a Low €9.5  
Friday Aug 16, 08:00 European Monetary Union  Current Account s.a Low €19.6 €19.0
Friday Aug 16, 08:00 Austria  HICP (MoM) Low -0.2  
Friday Aug 16, 08:00 Austria  HICP (YoY) Low 2.2  
Friday Aug 16, 08:30 Hong Kong SAR  Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) Low 0.2%  
Friday Aug 16, 08:30 Hong Kong SAR  Gross Domestic Product (YoY) Low 2.8%  
Friday Aug 16, 09:00 European Monetary Union  Consumer Price Index – Core (YoY) Medium 1.2%  
Friday Aug 16, 09:00 European Monetary Union  Consumer Price Index (MoM) Low 0.1% -0.5%
Friday Aug 16, 09:00 European Monetary Union  Consumer Price Index (YoY) Low 1.6% 1.6%
Friday Aug 16, 09:00 European Monetary Union  Trade Balance n.s.a. Low €15.2  
Friday Aug 16, 09:00 European Monetary Union  Trade Balance s.a. Low €14.6 €15.3
Friday Aug 16, 12:00 Poland  Corporate Sector Wages Low 1.4%  
Friday Aug 16, 12:00 Poland  Industrial Output (YoY) Low 3.0%  
Friday Aug 16, 12:00 Poland  Net Inflation Low 0.9%  
Friday Aug 16, 12:30 United States  Building Permits (MoM) High 0.911 0.95
Friday Aug 16, 12:30 Canada  Canadian portfolio investment in foreign securities Low $-1.65  
Friday Aug 16, 12:30 Canada  Foreign portfolio investment in Canadian securities Low $6.74 $7.77
Friday Aug 16, 12:30 United States  Housing Starts (MoM) Medium 0.836 0.91
Friday Aug 16, 12:30 Canada  Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) Medium 0.7% 0.4%
Friday Aug 16, 12:30 United States  Nonfarm Productivity Low 0.5% 0.5%
Friday Aug 16, 12:30 United States  Unit Labor Costs Low -4.3% 1.4%
Friday Aug 16, 13:55 United States  Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index High 85.1 85.6
Friday Aug 16, 20:00 Colombia  Trade Balance Low $36.8  
Saturday Aug 17, 00:00 Argentina  Day of general José de San Martín      
Saturday Aug 17, 00:00 Indonesia  Independence Day      
Saturday Aug 17, 12:00 Poland  Producer Price Index (YoY) Low -1.5%
Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Myfxbook Weekly Economic Calendar For Aug 4, 2013-Aug 10, 2013‏

Below you will find a list of economic events for the week ahead – economic events can have a direct effect on volatility which may affect your trading.

Date Country Event Impact Previous Consensus
Sunday Aug 04, 00:00 Australia  Bank Holiday      
Monday Aug 05, 00:00 Ireland  August Holiday      
Monday Aug 05, 00:00 Iceland  Commerce Day      
Monday Aug 05, 00:30 Australia  TD Securities Inflation (MoM) Low 0.0%  
Monday Aug 05, 00:30 Australia  TD Securities Inflation (YoY) Medium 2.4%  
Monday Aug 05, 01:00 New Zealand  ANZ Commodity Price Low -1.6%  
Monday Aug 05, 01:00 New Zealand  ANZ Commodity Price Low -1.6%  
Monday Aug 05, 01:30 Australia  Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) Medium 0.1% 0.4%
Monday Aug 05, 01:45 China  HSBC China Services PMI Medium 51.3  
Monday Aug 05, 02:30 Hong Kong SAR  Markit Manufacturing PMI Low 49.9  
Monday Aug 05, 05:00 Japan  Bank of Japan Monthly Economic Survey Medium    
Monday Aug 05, 05:00 Russia  Purchasing Manager Index Services Low 48.8  
Monday Aug 05, 07:00 Czech Republic  Retail Sales (YoY) Low 1.2%  
Monday Aug 05, 07:00 Hungary  Retail Sales (YoY) Low 2.5%  
Monday Aug 05, 07:00 Turkey  Consumer Price Index (MoM) Low 0.76%  
Monday Aug 05, 07:00 Turkey  Consumer Price Index (YoY) Low 8.3%  
Monday Aug 05, 07:00 Turkey  Producer Price Index (MoM) Low 1.46%  
Monday Aug 05, 07:00 Turkey  Producer Price Index (YoY) Low 5.23%  
Monday Aug 05, 07:13 Spain  Markit Services PMI Low 47.8  
Monday Aug 05, 07:43 Italy  Markit Services PMI Medium 45.8 47.0
Monday Aug 05, 07:48 France  Markit Services PMI Low 47.2 48.3
Monday Aug 05, 07:53 Germany  Markit Services PMI Medium 50.4 52.5
Monday Aug 05, 07:58 European Monetary Union  Markit PMI Composite Medium 48.7 50.5
Monday Aug 05, 07:58 European Monetary Union  Markit Services PMI Medium 48.3 49.6
Monday Aug 05, 08:28 United Kingdom  Markit Services PMI Medium 56.9 57.4
Monday Aug 05, 08:30 European Monetary Union  Sentix Investor Confidence Medium -12.6 -9.5
Monday Aug 05, 09:00 European Monetary Union  Retail Sales (MoM) Low 1.0% -0.5%
Monday Aug 05, 09:00 European Monetary Union  Retail Sales (YoY) Medium -0.1% -1.3%
Monday Aug 05, 12:30 Chile  IMACEC Low 3.5%  
Monday Aug 05, 13:00 Mexico  Consumer Confidence Low 93.3  
Monday Aug 05, 13:00 Mexico  Consumer Confidence s.a Low 93.4  
Monday Aug 05, 14:00 United States  ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI High 52.2 53.0
Monday Aug 05, 15:00 United States  Loan Officer Survey Low    
Monday Aug 05, 23:01 United Kingdom  BRC Retail Sales Monitor – All (YoY) Low 1.4%  
Monday Aug 05, 23:30 Australia  AiG Performance of Services Index Medium 41.5  
Monday Aug 05, 23:50 Japan  Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) High 1.0%  
Monday Aug 05, 23:50 Japan  Gross Domestic Product Annualized High 4.1%  
Monday Aug 05, 23:50 Japan  Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) Low -1.1%  
Tuesday Aug 06, 01:30 Australia  Exports Low 4.0%  
Tuesday Aug 06, 01:30 Australia  Imports Low 2.0%  
Tuesday Aug 06, 01:30 Australia  Trade Balance High 670.0 810.0
Tuesday Aug 06, 01:30 Australia  ANZ Job Advertisements Low -1.8%  
Tuesday Aug 06, 01:30 Australia  House Price Index (QoQ) Medium 0.1% 1.3%
Tuesday Aug 06, 01:30 Australia  House Price Index (YoY) Medium 2.6% 3.0%
Tuesday Aug 06, 04:30 Australia  RBA Interest Rate Decision High 2.75% 2.75%
Tuesday Aug 06, 04:30 Australia  RBA Monetary Policy Statement High    
Tuesday Aug 06, 05:00 Japan  Leading Economic Index Medium 110.7 108.0
Tuesday Aug 06, 05:00 Japan  Coincident Index Low 106.0 105.1
Tuesday Aug 06, 06:00 Finland  Gross Domestic Product (YoY) Low -4.2%  
Tuesday Aug 06, 07:00 Czech Republic  Construction output (YoY) Low -15.5%  
Tuesday Aug 06, 07:00 Czech Republic  Foreign Trade Balance (MoM) Low 28.79  
Tuesday Aug 06, 07:00 Czech Republic  Industrial Production (YoY) Low -2.2%  
Tuesday Aug 06, 08:00 Italy  Industrial Output s.a. (MoM) Low 0.1% 0.4%
Tuesday Aug 06, 08:00 Italy  Industrial Output w.d.a (YoY) Low -4.2% -3.2%
Tuesday Aug 06, 08:30 United Kingdom  Industrial Production (MoM) Low 0.0% 0.7%
Tuesday Aug 06, 08:30 United Kingdom  Industrial Production (YoY) Medium -2.3% 0.6%
Tuesday Aug 06, 08:30 United Kingdom  Manufacturing Production (MoM) Low -0.8% 0.9%
Tuesday Aug 06, 08:30 United Kingdom  Manufacturing Production (YoY) Medium -2.9% 0.7%
Tuesday Aug 06, 09:00 Greece  Consumer Price Index – Harmonized (YoY) Low -0.3%  
Tuesday Aug 06, 09:00 Greece  Consumer Price Index (YoY) Low -0.4%  
Tuesday Aug 06, 09:00 Italy  Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) Low -0.9% -0.3%
Tuesday Aug 06, 09:00 Italy  Gross Domestic Product (YoY) Low -2.8% -2.1%
Tuesday Aug 06, 09:00 France  10-y Bond Auction Low 2.32%  
Tuesday Aug 06, 09:50 United Kingdom  10-y Bond Auction Low 2.584%  
Tuesday Aug 06, 10:00 Germany  Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) Medium -2.0% -0.2%
Tuesday Aug 06, 10:00 Germany  Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) Low -1.3% 1.1%
Tuesday Aug 06, 12:30 Canada  Exports Low $39.34  
Tuesday Aug 06, 12:30 Canada  Imports Low $39.64  
Tuesday Aug 06, 12:30 Canada  International Merchandise Trade Low $-0.3 $-0.5
Tuesday Aug 06, 12:30 United States  Trade Balance High $-45.03 $-43.1
Tuesday Aug 06, 12:55 United States  Redbook index (MoM) Low 0.8%  
Tuesday Aug 06, 12:55 United States  Redbook index (YoY) Low 2.9%  
Tuesday Aug 06, 14:00 United Kingdom  NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) High 0.6%  
Tuesday Aug 06, 14:00 United States  IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM) Low 47.1 47.9
Tuesday Aug 06, 14:30 Turkey  Treasury Cash Balance Low -0.294  
Tuesday Aug 06, 22:45 New Zealand  Labour cost index (QoQ) Low 0.4% 0.5%
Tuesday Aug 06, 22:45 New Zealand  Labour cost index (YoY) Low 1.8%  
Tuesday Aug 06, 22:45 New Zealand  Employment Change High 1.7% 0.4%
Tuesday Aug 06, 22:45 New Zealand  Unemployment Rate High 6.2% 6.3%
Tuesday Aug 06, 23:30 Australia  AiG Performance of Construction Index Medium 39.5  
Wednesday Aug 07, 00:00 Colombia  Battle of Boyaca holiday      
Wednesday Aug 07, 01:30 Australia  Home Loans Medium 1.8% 2.2%
Wednesday Aug 07, 01:30 Australia  Investment Lending for Homes Low 1.5%  
Wednesday Aug 07, 01:30 Australia  RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speech Medium    
Wednesday Aug 07, 05:45 Switzerland  SECO Consumer Climate (3m) Medium -5.0 -2.0
Wednesday Aug 07, 06:00 Finland  Trade Balance Low €0.09  
Wednesday Aug 07, 06:45 France  Exports, EUR Low €36.1  
Wednesday Aug 07, 06:45 France  Imports, EUR Low €42.1  
Wednesday Aug 07, 06:45 France  Trade Balance EUR Low €-6.0 €-5.0
Wednesday Aug 07, 07:00 Switzerland  Foreign Currency Reserves Low 434.9  
Wednesday Aug 07, 07:15 Switzerland  Consumer Price Index (MoM) Low 0.1% -0.5%
Wednesday Aug 07, 07:15 Switzerland  Consumer Price Index (YoY) Medium -0.1% -0.1%
Wednesday Aug 07, 07:30 Austria  Wholesale Prices n.s.a (YoY) Low 0.4%  
Wednesday Aug 07, 07:30 Austria  Wholesale Prices n.s.a (MoM) Low -0.3%  
Wednesday Aug 07, 08:00 Czech Republic  FX Reserves Low €33.46  
Wednesday Aug 07, 08:00 Norway  Manufacturing Output Low -2.1%  
Wednesday Aug 07, 09:00 Singapore  Foreign Reserves (MoM) Low 259.8  
Wednesday Aug 07, 09:00 Iceland  Trade Balance Low -1.1  
Wednesday Aug 07, 09:30 United Kingdom  Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report High    
Wednesday Aug 07, 09:30 United Kingdom  Mark Carney speaks at UK Parliament High    
Wednesday Aug 07, 10:00 Germany  Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) Low -1.0% 0.5%
Wednesday Aug 07, 10:00 Germany  Industrial Production s.a. w.d.a. (YoY) Medium -1.0% -0.4%
Wednesday Aug 07, 10:00 Portugal  Unemployment Rate Low 17.7%  
Wednesday Aug 07, 11:00 United States  MBA Mortgage Applications Low -3.7%  
Wednesday Aug 07, 11:30 India  M3 Money Supply Low 12.8%  
Wednesday Aug 07, 12:00 Brazil  IPCA Inflation Low 0.26%  
Wednesday Aug 07, 12:00 Poland  Central Bank FX Reserves Low €84.67  
Wednesday Aug 07, 12:30 Chile  Trade Balance Low $608.0  
Wednesday Aug 07, 12:30 Canada  Building Permits (MoM) High 4.5% 6.2%
Wednesday Aug 07, 14:00 Canada  Ivey Purchasing Managers Index High 56.6  
Wednesday Aug 07, 14:00 Canada  Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a High 55.3 56.3
Wednesday Aug 07, 14:00 Hungary  Budget Balance Low -162.3  
Wednesday Aug 07, 14:30 United States  EIA Crude Oil Stocks change Medium 0.431  
Wednesday Aug 07, 19:00 United States  Consumer Credit Change Medium $19.6 $15.0
Wednesday Aug 07, 23:50 Japan  Bank lending (YoY) Medium 1.9%  
Wednesday Aug 07, 23:50 Japan  Current Account n.s.a. High ¥540.7 ¥727.3
Wednesday Aug 07, 23:50 Japan  Trade Balance – BOP Basis Medium ¥-906.7 ¥-128.7
Wednesday Aug 07, 23:50 Japan  Foreign bond investment Medium ¥233.2  
Wednesday Aug 07, 23:50 Japan  Foreign investment in Japan stocks Medium ¥-61.8  
Wednesday Aug 07, 23:50 Japan  Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance Low ¥-598.656  
Wednesday Aug 07, 23:50 Japan  Merchandise Trade Balance Total Low ¥-180.8  
Thursday Aug 08, 00:00 Qatar  Eid al-Fitr      
Thursday Aug 08, 00:00 Indonesia  Hari Raya Puasa      
Thursday Aug 08, 00:00 Singapore  Hari Raya Puasa      
Thursday Aug 08, 00:00 India  Idul Fitr      
Thursday Aug 08, 00:00 Turkey  Ramazan Feast      
Thursday Aug 08, 00:00 Korea, Republic of  BoK Interest Rate Decision Low 2.5%  
Thursday Aug 08, 01:30 Australia  Employment Change s.a. High 10300.0 6200.0
Thursday Aug 08, 01:30 Australia  Fulltime employment Medium -4400.0  
Thursday Aug 08, 01:30 Australia  Part-time employment Low 14800.0  
Thursday Aug 08, 01:30 Australia  Unemployment Rate s.a. High 5.7% 5.8%
Thursday Aug 08, 02:00 China  M2 Money Supply (YoY) Low 14.0% 13.9%
Thursday Aug 08, 02:00 China  New Loans Low ¥860.5 ¥635.0
Thursday Aug 08, 03:00 Japan  BoJ Interest Rate Decision High 0.1%  
Thursday Aug 08, 03:00 Japan  BoJ Monetary Policy Statement High    
Thursday Aug 08, 05:00 Japan  Eco Watchers Survey: Current Medium 53.0 53.5
Thursday Aug 08, 05:00 Japan  Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook Medium 53.6 54.1
Thursday Aug 08, 05:45 Switzerland  Unemployment Rate s.a (MoM) Medium 3.2% 3.2%
Thursday Aug 08, 06:00 Germany  Current Account n.s.a. Low €11.2 €17.0
Thursday Aug 08, 06:00 Germany  Exports (MoM) Low -2.4% 0.9%
Thursday Aug 08, 06:00 Germany  Imports (MoM) Low 1.7% 0.8%
Thursday Aug 08, 06:00 Germany  Trade Balance s.a. Low €14.1 €15.1
Thursday Aug 08, 07:00 Hungary  Trade Balance Low €653.2  
Thursday Aug 08, 07:00 Czech Republic  Unemployment Rate Low 7.3%  
Thursday Aug 08, 07:00 Spain  Industrial Output Cal Adjusted (YoY) Low -1.3%  
Thursday Aug 08, 07:30 Netherlands, The  Consumer Price Index n.s.a (YoY) Low 2.9%  
Thursday Aug 08, 08:00 European Monetary Union  ECB Monthly Report High    
Thursday Aug 08, 08:00 Norway  Credit Indicator Low 6.4%  
Thursday Aug 08, 09:00 Greece  Unemployment Rate (MoM) Low 26.9%  
Thursday Aug 08, 09:30 South Africa  Reuters Econometer Low 256.3  
Thursday Aug 08, 12:00 Chile  Consumer Price Index (Inflation) (MoM) Low 0.6%  
Thursday Aug 08, 12:30 United States  Continuing Jobless Claims Medium 2.951  
Thursday Aug 08, 12:30 United States  Initial Jobless Claims High 326.0 336.0
Thursday Aug 08, 12:30 Canada  New Housing Price Index (MoM) Low 0.1% 0.3%
Thursday Aug 08, 12:30 Canada  New Housing Price Index (YoY) Medium 1.8%  
Thursday Aug 08, 13:00 Mexico  12-Month Inflation Low 4.09%  
Thursday Aug 08, 13:00 Mexico  Core Inflation Low 0.13%  
Thursday Aug 08, 13:00 Mexico  Headline Inflation Low -0.06%  
Thursday Aug 08, 14:30 United States  EIA Natural Gas Storage change Low 59.0  
Thursday Aug 08, 17:00 United States  10-Year Note Auction Medium 2.67%  
Thursday Aug 08, 17:00 United States  30-Year Bond Auction Low 3.66%  
Thursday Aug 08, 22:00 Austria  Trade Balance Low €45.5  
Thursday Aug 08, 22:45 New Zealand  Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) Medium 1.1% 0.4%
Thursday Aug 08, 22:45 New Zealand  Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY) Low 5.1%  
Thursday Aug 08, 23:50 Japan  Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) Medium 1.2% -0.4%
Thursday Aug 08, 23:50 Japan  Money Supply M2+CD (YoY) Low 3.8% 3.8%
Friday Aug 09, 00:00 Qatar  Eid al-Fitr      
Friday Aug 09, 00:00 Indonesia  Hari Raya Puasa      
Friday Aug 09, 00:00 Singapore  National Day      
Friday Aug 09, 00:00 Turkey  Ramazan Feast      
Friday Aug 09, 01:30 China  Consumer Price Index (MoM) High 0.0%  
Friday Aug 09, 01:30 China  Consumer Price Index (YoY) Low 2.7% 2.8%
Friday Aug 09, 01:30 China  Producer Price Index (YoY) Medium -2.7% -2.0%
Friday Aug 09, 01:30 China  Retail Sales (YoY) Medium 13.3% 13.5%
Friday Aug 09, 01:30 China  Exports (YoY) Low -3.1%  
Friday Aug 09, 01:30 China  Imports (YoY) Low -0.7%  
Friday Aug 09, 01:30 China  Trade Balance Medium 27.1 26.2
Friday Aug 09, 05:00 Japan  Consumer Confidence Index Medium 44.3 45.0
Friday Aug 09, 05:30 China  Industrial Production (YoY) Medium 8.9% 9.0%
Friday Aug 09, 05:30 China  Urban investment (YTD) (YoY) Medium 20.1% 20.0%
Friday Aug 09, 06:00 Finland  Industrial Output (MoM) Low -5.9%  
Friday Aug 09, 06:45 France  Budget Low €-72.6  
Friday Aug 09, 06:45 France  Industrial Output (MoM) Low -0.4% 0.2%
Friday Aug 09, 07:00 Czech Republic  Consumer Price Index (MoM) Low 0.4%  
Friday Aug 09, 07:00 Czech Republic  Consumer Price Index (YoY) Low 1.6%  
Friday Aug 09, 07:00 Slovakia  Foreign Trade Balance Low €664.1  
Friday Aug 09, 07:00 Slovakia  Industrial Output (YoY) Low 2.6%  
Friday Aug 09, 07:00 Denmark  Industrial Production (MoM) Low 0.6%  
Friday Aug 09, 07:30 Netherlands, The  Manufacturing Output (MoM) Low -0.6%  
Friday Aug 09, 08:00 Italy  Global Trade Balance Low €3.895 €4.22
Friday Aug 09, 08:00 Italy  Trade Balance EU Low €0.89  
Friday Aug 09, 08:00 Norway  Consumer Price Index (MoM) Low -0.4%  
Friday Aug 09, 08:00 Norway  Consumer Price Index (YoY) Low 2.1%  
Friday Aug 09, 08:00 Norway  Producer Price Index (YoY) Low 1.7%  
Friday Aug 09, 08:30 United Kingdom  Goods Trade Balance Medium £-8.491 £-8.4
Friday Aug 09, 08:30 United Kingdom  Total Trade Balance Low £-2.435 £-2.35
Friday Aug 09, 08:30 United Kingdom  Trade Balance; non-EU Medium £-4.093  
Friday Aug 09, 09:00 United Kingdom  CB Leading Economic Index Low 0.4%  
Friday Aug 09, 09:00 Greece  Industrial Production (YoY) Low -4.6%  
Friday Aug 09, 09:00 Italy  Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) Low 1.4% 1.2%
Friday Aug 09, 09:00 Italy  Consumer Price Index (MoM) Low 0.3% 0.0%
Friday Aug 09, 09:00 Italy  Consumer Price Index (YoY) Low 1.2% 1.1%
Friday Aug 09, 09:00 Italy  Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) Low 0.3% -1.8%
Friday Aug 09, 10:00 Portugal  Global Trade Balance Low €-1.921  
Friday Aug 09, 11:30 India  Bank Loan Growth Low 14.2%  
Friday Aug 09, 12:15 Canada  Housing Starts s.a (YoY) Medium 199.6 191.0
Friday Aug 09, 12:30 Canada  Net Change in Employment High -0.4 6.2
Friday Aug 09, 12:30 Canada  Unemployment Rate High 7.1% 7.1%
Friday Aug 09, 13:00 Mexico  Industrial Output (MoM) Low 1.4%  
Friday Aug 09, 13:00 Mexico  Industrial Output (YoY) Low 0.5%  
Friday Aug 09, 14:00 United States  Wholesale Inventories Low -0.5% 0.2%
Saturday Aug 10, 00:00 Qatar  Eid al-Fitr      
Saturday Aug 10, 00:00 Turkey  Ramazan Feast
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Gold and Silver Prices Outlook for July 29 – August 2

During last week, gold and silver traded up. Nonetheless, most of their gain came on Monday. During the rest of the week, both metals had an unclear trend. Their recent rally coincided with the ongoing depreciation of the US dollar against currencies including Euro and Aussie dollar. The weakness in the U.S equity market may have also contributed to the latest rally of precious metals prices. During the previous week, several U.S reports came out and didn’t show a clear direction as to the progress of the American economy, which may have contributed to precious metals’ unclear trend during most of the week. These reports included: existing home sales slipped by 1.2% in June; jobless claims rose by 7k to reach 343k. Conversely, core durable goods spiked by 4.2% during last month;new home sales jumped by 8.3% in June. Will gold and silver continue to trade up this week?  Here is a short outlook for July 29th to August 2nd; this includes a fundamental analysis of the main events, decisions and reports that may affect bullion markets. These include: FOMC meeting, ECB rate decision, U.S non-farm employment update, China and U.S manufacturing PMI, U.S’s GDP second quarter estimate, BOE rate decision, U.S pending home sales, and U.S. jobless claims.  

Gold price rallied by 2.21% during last week; furthermore the average rate reached $1,328.10 /t. oz which was 3.30% above last week’s average. By the end of the week, gold settled at $1,321.50 /t. oz.

Silver price also rose by 1.60%; further, the average weekly rate was $20.13/t oz, which was 2.72% above last week’s rate.

Herein is a short overview that breaks down the main publications, events and decisions that will enfold next week between July 29th and August 2nd and could affect gold and silver.

The high volatility of precious metals prices could return this week as many publications and decisions will come to fruition next week. Let’s break down the upcoming events by regions:

U.S

The five main news items that will unfold during this week are: non-farm payroll report, first estimate of GDP for the second quarter, FOMC meeting and consumer sentiment. The current expectations are that the FOMC won’t change its policy this time. The September meeting, however, is the one that some analysts speculate could be the one, in which the Fed will announce of tapering QE3. Until then, the speculations around the Fed’s next move will remain high and will keep gold and silver prices moving in an unclear trend. If in the upcoming meeting Bernanke will clarify the Fed’s position by providing a better understanding as to when the FOMC plans to taper its asset purchase program, this could determine the direction of gold and silver. If Bernanke will reiterate his words from the last press conference following the FOMC meeting, this could drag down gold and silver. If we will getBernanke from his latest testimony, in which he suggested the U.S economy still needs the Fed’s asset purchase program; this tone is likely to pull up precious metals prices. The upcoming reports listed above will contribute to the speculations regarding the Fed’s next move. Moreover, if the payroll report will show growth in jobs of well over 150k as it did in recent months, this may pressure down gold and silver rates as they tend to be negatively correlated with precious metals daily changes.

China

The upcoming manufacturing PMI report will indicate the direction of China’s manufacturing sector. If the flash report is accurate, then the upcoming PMI report will show a decline in China’s manufacturing conditions, which could indirectly adversely affect commodities prices including gold and silver.

Europe

ECB and BOE will announce of any changes to their respective monetary policy. The current expectations are that it is less likely that either bank will change its current policy. Draghi’s press conference, however, could affect the Euro. If he will keep his recent positive wording regarding the future progress of EU, this could positively affect the Euro, which tends to be positively correlated with precious metals prices.

The upcoming developments in the forex markets could also affect the direction of silver and gold. If leading currencies such as Euro, Japanese yen and Aussie dollar further appreciate against the US dollar, they may further pressure up precious metals prices. In India, the Indian Rupee depreciated against the US dollar during the pervious week; if the Rupee will continue to fall; it may also adversely affect the demand of gold and silver in this country.

Finally, the recent recovery of gold price didn’t help pull up gold holdings of SPDR gold trust ETF that continues to dwindle: Since the beginning of July, the ETF’s gold holdings fell by 4.35% and by 31.35% during 2013 (up-to-date). Current gold holdings are at 927.355 tons. If the ETF’s gold holdings continue to decline, this could indicate the demand for gold as an investment further falls.

My guess is that gold and silver’s recent rally won’t last long and they will resume their downward trend.

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Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets for July 29 – August 2

Major energy commodities including oil, and natural gas fell during last week while precious metals rallied. Equities markets slightly pulled back, while in the forex markets the US dollar depreciated against leading currencies including Euro and Japanese yen. In the upcoming week several reports, speeches and events will unfold and could affect commodities, equities and forex markets; these include: FOMC meeting, ECB rate decision monetary policy meeting, Stevens’ speech, U.S non-farm employment report, China and U.S manufacturing PMI,  Canada’s GDP, U.S’s GDP second quarter estimate, Spain’s employment situation, Bank of Japan’s Kuroda Speaks, BOE rate decision, U.S pending home sales, German industrial production, and U.S. jobless claims. Here is an economic outlook for the week of July 29th to August 2nd regarding the U.S, China, Euro Area, Japan, Australia, Canada, and Great Britain.   

(All times GMT):

Monday, July 29th

15:00 – U.S. Pending Home Sales: This report presents the changes in pending home sales in the U.S. for June; in the latest report, the pending home sales index sharply increased by 6.7% (M-over-M). These data are another signal for the developments in U.S’s housing market; if the housing data will show ongoing increase in sales it may pressure up the U.S dollar;

Tentative – Bank of Japan’s Kuroda Speaks: This time, Bank of Japan Governor will talk at Research Institute of Japan, in Tokyo. Considering the sharp movement of Japan’s currency and the recent political developments in Japan, his words could influence traders;

Tuesday, July 30th

04:45 –Governor Stevens speaks: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor will give a speech at the Anika Foundation Luncheon supported by the Australian Business Economists and Macquarie Bank, in Sydney; in his upcoming talk, the Governor may refer to the recent RBA monetary policy meeting, in which the RBA left its interest rate flat; this speech may affect the Australian dollar;

09:00 – Gfk German Consumer Climate Survey: This survey estimates Germany’s consumers’ economic climate including past and future economic conditions (on a monthly basis) for July. In the recent report for June 2013, the climate index slightly increased to 6.8;

15:00 – U.S Consumer Confidence: Based on the latest monthly update, for May, the consumer confidence index rose to 81.4 (month-over-month). The current expectations are that the June index may further rally; this report might affect commodities prices including the oil and natural gas;

Wednesday, July 31st

07:00 – German Retail Sales: This monthly update will show the developments in German retail sales during June. In May 2013, retail sales bounced back by 0.8% – higher than many had expected; if this report will show another rise in sales then it might further strengthen the Euro;

08:00 – KOF Economic Barometer: this monthly report measures the estimate to the Swiss economy in the coming months;

10:00 – EU CPI Flash Estimate: This estimate will provide the annual consumer price index of the Euro members. Based on the previous estimate for June, the annual CPI of 1.4%, which is still much lower than the ECB’s target inflation of 2%. If the inflation will further dwindle, it could indicate the EU economy continues to slowdown. This turn of events may enable the ECB to lower again its interest rate; this news could affect the direction of the Euro/USD currency pair;

10:00 – EU Unemployment Rate: This is another report that estimates the progress of the EU economy from the labor point of view. Last month’s report showed that the rate of unemployment inched down to 12.1%, which is still a high rate. If this downward trend will persist, it could positively affect the Euro;

13:15 – ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll: ADP will come out with its estimate for the next U.S non-farm payroll developments for July 2013 that will be published on Friday;

13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry: this monthly update shows the changes in major industrial sectors for May 2013. In the latest report regarding April 2013, the real gross domestic product edged up by 0.1%. This report may affect the Canadian dollar, which is strongly correlated with major commodities prices;

13:30 – First U.S GDP 2Q 2013 Estimate: This will be the first estimate of U.S’s second quarter 2013 real GDP growth. In the latest estimate the U.S GDP rose by 1.8% in the first quarter of 2013 (it was revised down). If the growth rate from first quarter of 2013 to the second quarter will further rise, this could affect not only the US dollar but also commodities prices;

19:00 – FOMC Meeting and Press Conference: The FOMC will convene for the fifth time this year and come out with a statement, which will be followed by a press conference of any changes to its monetary policy. In the latest meeting the FOMC left its policy unchanged. But in the press conference that followed, Bernanke hinted that the Fed may scale back on its current asst purchase program in the coming months. Later on, however, Bernanke took a step back in his testimony and suggested the FOMC will keep its expanding Monterey policy. This left its unclear when the Fed will scale down its asset purchase program. Perhaps in this upcoming meeting the FOMC member will make it clearer. The direction of the upcoming press conference could stir up the markets again;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Update: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will come out with its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on July 26th; if the oil stockpiles will change significantly, it could affect the direction of crude oil price in the U.S; 

Thursday, August 1st

02:00 – China Manufacturing PMI: Back in June 2013 the Manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.1 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors is still expanding but at a slightly slower pace; the recent flash PMI report was well below the 50 point market. If in the upcoming report the PMI will also fall below the 50 point mark, it could signal a decline in China’s economic progress. If the index will decrease, this may also adversely affect leading commodities prices;

08:45 – Italian and Spanish Manufacturing PMI: These reports will pertain to July 2013. During June, the Italy’s index rose to 49.1; Spain’s PMI rose to 50. This means the manufacturing sectors in these countries are slowly improving; these indexes may affect the Euro;

09:30 – GB Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to Great Britain’s manufacturing sector in July 2013. In the previous update regarding June 2013 the index increased again to 52.5. This rate gain means the manufacturing sector is growing at a faster pace; this index might affect GB Pound;

12:00 –BOE Rate Decision & Asset Purchase Plan: Bank of England will come out with its basic rate for August 2013; the MPC will also state of any new changes to its asset purchase pogrom; as of July, BOE kept its rate flat at 0.5% and the asset purchase plan s at £375 billion;

12:45 – ECB Rate Decision: ECB will announce its cash rate for August. Following the last meeting in which the ECB kept its rate at 0.50%, Draghi’s decision could stir up the Euro market. Some suspect he may keep ECB’s monetary policy with no changes. The recent shift in Draghi’s sentiment with his positive remarks regarding his projections for the future development of the EU economy could further pull up the Euro against leading currencies. Nevertheless, if ECB will cut its cash rate, or lower further its deposit rate, the Euro is likely to change direction and fall;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  this weekly report will pertain to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on July 26th; in the previous report the jobless claims increased by 7k to reach 336k; this upcoming weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and stocks markets;

15:00 – U.S. Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to July 2013. In June, the index bounced back to 50.9%; this means the manufacturing is growing; this index may affect foreign exchange rates, crude oil and natural gas markets.

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage Update: the EIA weekly update regarding U.S. natural gas market will pertain to the latest changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of July 26th; in previous weekly report, natural gas storage increased by 41 Bcf to 2,786 Bcf;

Friday, August 2nd

08:00 – Spain’s unemployment Change: the number of people unemployed in Spain dropped in June by 127.2k. This mean, the employment situation in Spain has improved. If in the upcoming report the number of unemployed will drop again, this may pull up the Euro;

15:00 – Australia’s PPI: This quarterly update will pertain to second quarter of 2013. During the first quarter of 2013, the producer price index rose by 1.6% compared to the first quarter of 2012 and by 0.3% compared to Q4 2012; this index may affect the Aussie dollar.

09:30 – GB Construction PMI: Great Britain’s construction sector in June 2013 slightly improved as the PMI rose to 51 – the construction sector is growing at a slightly faster pace. The upcoming report will refer to July and might affect GB Pound;

13:30 – U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Report: in the latest employment report for June 2013, the labor market sharply rose again: the number of non-farm payroll employment rose by 195k; the U.S unemployment rate remained flat at 7.6%; if in the upcoming report the employment will grow again by over 150 thousand (in additional jobs), this may pressure down the prices of gold and silver and pull up the US dollar;

15:00 – U.S Factory Orders: This report will refer the developments in U.S. factory orders of manufactured durable goods during July; in the previous report factory orders rose by 2.1%; this report will offer some insight regarding the progress of the U.S economy;

For further reading:

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Gold and Silver Prices Outlook for July 22-26

During last week, gold and silver didn’t do much. Their rally coincided with the depreciation of the US dollar against currencies such as Euro and Japanese yen. Bernanke’s testimony reminded that the Fed won’t taper QE3 until the U.S economy will show clear signs of progress. This news, however, didn’t stir up the precious metals markets. In the U.S several reports mostly showed a positive sentiment regarding the progress of the economy:Housing starts fell by 9.9% during June compared to May; Philly Fed index also rose to 19.8 in July; U.S jobless claims fell by 24k to 334k;Retail sales slightly increased by 0.6% during June.  Will gold and silver resume their downward trend this week?  Here is a short forecast for July 22nd to July 26th; this includes a fundamental analysis of the main publications that may affect precious metals markets. These include: U.S core durable goods, EU monetary developments, U.S housing starts, Canada’s retail sales, China manufacturing PMI, U.S existing home sales, and U.S. jobless claims.

The price of gold slightly increased by 1.20% last week; moreover, during last week, the average price reached $1,285.70 /t. oz which was 2.27% above last week’s average.

The price of silver slipped by 1.68%; conversely, the average weekly rate was $19.60/t oz, which was 0.99% above last week’s.

Herein is a short overview that outlines the main publications and decisions that may affect gold and silver next week between July 22nd and July 26th.

Based on upcoming reports and latest developments, gold and silver prices might not do much during the week. They might resume their downward trend if the upcoming U.S reports including new and existing home sales, jobless claims and core durable goods will keep showing signs of progress. These reports could indicate the U.S economy is progressing and thus pull down the demand for safe haven investments such as gold and silver. These reports could also suggest the Fed might be one step closer towards tapering QE3, which is also likely to adversely affect bullion prices. In China, the upcoming manufacturing PMI report could affect the Aussie dollar, which is strongly correlated with precious metals prices. The US dollar depreciated during last week against leading currencies including Euro, Aussie dollar and Japanese yen. If this trend will change course, and the US dollar will rally, this could also adversely affect precious metals prices. Nonetheless, based on the upcoming publications it is more likely that precious metals prices won’t do much during the week and the volatility will be low, much like the low volatility during last week.

 

Despite last week’s recent rise of gold price, gold holdings of the SPDR gold trust ETF continue to dwindle: the ETF’s gold holdings fell by 3.82% during July and by 30.97% during the year (up to date). Current gold holdings are at 932.4 tons. If the ETF’s gold holdings continue to fall, this could indicate the demand for gold as an investment further diminishes. In India, silver imports rose during the first five months of 2013 despite the rise in precious metals import taxes. Finally, the Indian Rupee slightly appreciated against the US dollar during last week; if the Rupee will continue to rise; it may also positively affect the demand of gold and silver in India.

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Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets for July 22-26

The summer days may have pulled back the volatility in the financial markets as leading commodities such as oil, natural gas and gold didn’t do much during last week. Leading currencies including Euro, Japanese yen and Aussie dollar rallied against the USD last week. The Japanese elections started off the week as Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party is set to win. This news could affect the Japanese yen and consequently other leading currencies. This forthcoming week several reports, may affect the financial markets. These include: U.S core durable goods, EU monetary developments, U.S housing starts, Australia’s CPI for the second quarter of 2013, Canada’s retail sales, China, EU and Germany’s manufacturing PMI, GB GDP for the second quarter of 2013, U.S existing home sales, and U.S. jobless claims.  Here is an economic outlook for the week of July 22nd to July 26th regarding the U.S, Euro Area, Canada, Japan, China, Australia, and Great Britain.   

(All times GMT):

Monday, July 22nd

15:00 – U.S. Existing Home Sales: This report will pertain to the developments in U.S. existing home sales during June 2013; in the latest report regarding May 2013 the number of homes sold rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.18 million houses; if this trend will continue, it might pressure up the U.S dollar;

Tuesday, July 23rd

13:30 – Canada Retails Sales (May 2013): This report will refer to the retails sales in Canada as of May. In the recent report regarding April 2013, retails sales inched down by 0.3%;

00:30 – Australia’s CPI for Q2 2013: This quarterly report will refer to the changes in the consumer price index. In the previous report regarding the first quarter of 2013, the CPI rose by 0.4% compared to the fourth quarter and by 2.5% compared to Q1 2012; this report could affect the Aussie dollar which is linked with commodities rates;

02:45 – China flash Manufacturing PMI: this index is based on a survey covering 800 companies in 20 industries in China; in the previous HSBC Manufacturing PMI survey regarding June 2013 the Manufacturing PMI declined again to 48.3; this index indicates China’s manufacturing sectors have contracted at a slightly faster pace than in May; if the index will continue to contract, this may adversely affect commodities and risk related currencies such as Aussie dollar;

Wednesday, July 24th

09:00 – Flash German, French and Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI: In the last monthly report regarding June 2013, the German PMI inched down to 48.7 i.e. the manufacturing conditions are shrinking at a slightly faster pace. This report serves as an indicator to the economic changes of the Euro Area’s leading economies’ manufacturing conditions; this news, in turn, may affect the Euro/USD currency pair and consequently commodities;

15:00 – U.S. New Home Sales: This report will refer to June 2013; in the recent report (opens pdf; for May), the sales of new homes slightly rose to an annual rate of 476,000 – a 4.8% gain (month over month); if the number of home sales will continue to rise, it may suggest the housing market in the U.S continues to progress; this news may also affect the US dollar;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Update: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will come out with its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on July 19th; in the recent report for July 12th, stockpiles slightly decreased by 0.2 ml bl to reach 1,817.9 ml bl.

Thursday, July 25th

08:00 – Spain’s unemployment Change: the rate of unemployment of the Spain rose again to 27.2%. This mean, the employment situation in Spain hasn’t improved. If in the upcoming report this trend will persist, it may adversely affect the Euro;

09:00 – German Ifo Business Climate Index: This index comprises the changes (on a monthly basis) of manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers in Germany as of July. In the recent report for June 2013, the business climate index rose from 105.7 in May to 105.9 in June; if this trend will continue, it might pull up the Euro;

09:00 – Euro Area Monetary Development: This monthly report will refer to the shifts of the M3, M1 and loans to private sector in the Euro area for June 2013. In the previous May report, the annual growth rate for M3 slipped to 2.9%; M1 decreased to 8.4%. Finally, the annual growth rate of loans to private sector reached -0.7%. This news suggests the EU inflation isn’t rising as loans continue to dwindle and the growth rate of M1 and M3 inch down. The progress of the EU monetary base is likely to affect the ECB rate decisions in the coming months;

09:30 – Flash GB GDP Q2 2013: This report will present the first estimate of the quarterly growth rate of the British economy for the second quarter of 2013; during the first quarter the GB economy expanded by 0.3% (Q-2-Q);  if the growth rate will rise, it could affect the monetary policy of Bank of England and also affect GB pound;

13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods: This report will pertain to the developments in U.S. orders of durable goods in the manufacturing sector for June 2013. This monthly report may indirectly indicate the changes in U.S. demand for commodities such as oil and gas. As of May 2013, new orders of manufactured durable goods increased to $231 billion; if this report will show another rise in new orders then it could pull up not only the USD but also commodities rates;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  this weekly report will pertain to the shifts in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on July 13th; in the recent report the jobless claims declined by 24k to reach 334k; the next weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities markets;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: the EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest shifts in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of July 19th; in latest weekly report, natural gas storage increased again by 58 Bcf to 2,745 Bcf;

Friday, July 26th

14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (revised): University of Michigan will come out with its revised consumer sentiment monthly update; this survey could offer an insight to recent developments in U.S consumers’ sentiment; based on the recent report, the sentiment index slipped to 84.1;

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For Gold, $1,300 Level Looms Large

Tim Iacono

Precious Metals Weekly Market Wrap

Due largely to the dovish tone of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke in testimony before Congress, gold added to its recent gains, however, the silver price declined as both metals could be range-bound over the near-term in thin summer trading. For gold, the $1,300 an ounce level now looms large after having been tested on multiple occasions in recent weeks and, for silver, another round number offers resistance at $20 an ounce.

A weaker dollar also boosted precious metals as the U.S. Dollar Index fell for the second week in a row after notching a multi-year high earlier in the month. The gold price often moves opposite the world’s reserve currency and that has certainly been true this year as tumbling precious metals prices have been accompanied by a stronger trade-weighted dollar.

Physical demand for gold remains strong in China though the summer lull in India is proving to be more severe than usual. This comes after lower prices prompted surging demand earlier in the year that was then greeted by even more government moves to slow gold buying. In the U.S., investors continue to exit positions in gold ETFs while adding to their silver ETF holdings and ongoing backwardation in the gold futures market provides more evidence of the growing disconnect between “paper” metals markets and “physical” markets.

For the week, the gold price rose 0.9 percent, from $1,284.80 an ounce to $1,296.70, but silver fell 2.0 percent, from $19.92 an ounce to $19.53. The gold price is now down 22.6 percent so far this year, some 32.6 percent below its record high of over $1,920 an ounce almost two years ago, and silver has fallen 35.7 percent in 2013, more than 60 percent below its all-time high near $50 an ounce in early-2011.

Precious metals saw big swings on Wednesday beginning with the release of Fed Chief Ben Bernanke’s prepared testimony early in the day that sent prices sharply higher.

But, shortly thereafter, when the question and answer session began, both metals tumbled as traders realized there was really nothing new being offered by the central bank.

In a continuation of their recently dovish tone, the Fed left open the option to increase or decrease their $85 billion per month money printing effort depending upon the economic outlook. The start of “tapering” for their bond buying is still expected to occur sometime in the months ahead, however, Bernanke made clear that this action is not “on a preset course.”

Technical resistance at key levels was also a factor in last week’s price action as heavy selling was seen when gold approached $1,300 an ounce and after silver briefly topped $20 an ounce. As has been the case since the April sell-off, rallies have been sold as rising prices have prompted quick profit-taking by short-term traders and this will likely continue until resistance levels (that were once support levels) give way.

The bias for both metals remains decidedly down, that is, until gold trades over $1,300 an ounce and silver can stay above $20 an ounce. It’s worth remembering that two big investment banks that were instrumental in shaping the attitudes of traders and investors toward precious metals earlier in the year both see much lower prices ahead. Goldman Sachs sees the gold price ending this year at just $1,050 an ounce and Credit Suisse forecasts an average gold price of $1,150 an ounce a year from now.

One potential catalyst that could reverse the recent price weakness and push gold and silver sharply higher later this year is the growing disconnect between the paper futures market and the physical market that has resulted in persistent and growing gold backwardation. Strong demand for the physical metal around the world has resulted in record deliveries from the Shanghai Gold Exchange and tumbling inventory at the COMEX in New York which has caused later-date gold futures contracts to trade at a discount to the spot price.

In January, gold was in backwardation relative to the three-month futures contract and according to this Reuters report on Friday, this is now moving out the futures curve. This condition was last seen during the financial crisis of 2008 and, since there is no similar “flight to safety” today, this raises important questions about the availability of metal for delivery amid record inflows of gold to mainland China and still elevated premiums in Asia.

Metal prices are set by futures traders who are fixated on short-term chart patterns that have been bearish since the April sell-off. Someday, the fundamental factors of supply and demand will again matter and that day may be hastened by concern over availability of the physical metal.

In recent months, China has played the most important role in physical gold demand as it was reported last week that physical gold delivery in Shanghai rose to nearly 1,100 tonnes during the first half of the year, just shy of deliveries for all of 2012 and more than double the nation’s annual gold production.

report from Russia last week suggested that China may someday back its currency with gold and this only adds to the growing speculation about how much gold China’s central bank has quietly accumulated in recent years. Recall that, in 2009, China told the world it had nearly doubled its gold holdings over the prior six years and they are believed to have dramatically increased their gold reserves since then.

The Indian government stepped back from the brink last week in their increasingly desperate attempts to curb gold demand when they ruled out a complete ban on gold imports, at least temporarily. After surging to record highs in the spring, gold imports plunged 80 percent in June, however, wedding season buying will soon begin and gold imports are expected to rise again. India doubled the import duty to 8 percent earlier this year and restricted gold financing while some major banks have stopped selling gold coins and bars, efforts all aimed at reducing the nation’s trade deficit.

Here in the U.S., investors appear to be exchanging shares of gold ETFs for silver ETFs as holdings at the former continue to fall as they rise at the latter. Last week, the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) saw its holdings decline for the 29th time in the last 31 weeks as another 6.6 tonnes exited the trust.

This brings the total outflows since last December to a stunning 420 tonnes, a decline of 31 percent that is comparable to the decline of 25 percent in the gold price since that time.

Holdings at the iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV), however, continued their recent ascent as shown below, rising another 99 tonnes last week and now up more than 200 tonnes so far in 2013.

(click to enlarge)

As detailed recently in The Curious Case Of Physical Demand For Silver Versus Gold, this has been one of the more interesting developments in precious metals markets as SLV holdings are now up 2 percent this year while the silver price has tumbled 36 percent.

Ongoing strong demand amid tight supply for Silver American Eagle coins all across the country as detailed in this report by Patrick Heller at Numismaster only adds to the many questions about the disconnect between pricing in “paper” metal markets and “physical” market demand.

Fed Chief Ben Bernanke was queried about precious metals prices during his appearance on Capitol Hill last week and this produced a few interesting comments from someone whose tenure as Chairman has been very good for gold. Recall that the gold price was under $500 an ouncewhen Bernanke was nominated to run the central bank in October of 2005 and it had nearly quadrupled before beginning a correction in late-2011.

During questioning from the Senate Banking Committee, Bernanke noted the following:

Gold is an unusual asset. It’s an asset that people hold as sort of disaster insurance. They feel if things go really badly wrong, at least they’ll have some gold in their portfolio.

One reason gold prices are lower is people are less concerned about extreme outcomes, particularly negative outcomes, and therefore they feel less need for whatever protection gold affords.

Nobody really understands gold prices and I don ‘t pretend to understand them either.

It seems to me that someone should have asked him about the record gold demand in Asia after prices fell and the disconnect between “paper” markets and “physical” markets as evidenced by record demand for silver coins in the U.S. Clearly,a lot of people still think they need “insurance”.

 

Additional disclosure: I own gold and silver coins and bars.

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Myfxbook Weekly Economic Calendar For Jul 21, 2013-Jul 27, 2013‏

Below you will find a list of economic events for the week ahead – economic events can have a direct effect on volatility which may affect your trading.

Date Country Event Impact Previous Consensus
Sunday Jul 21, 00:00 Belgium  National holiday      
Sunday Jul 21, 00:00 Japan  Japan’s House of Councillors election Medium    
Sunday Jul 21, 15:30 Portugal  Portugal, national salvation pact deadline High    
Monday Jul 22, 02:00 Japan  BOJ Policy Board Member Sato Speech Low    
Monday Jul 22, 07:00 Switzerland  Monthly Statistical Bulletin Medium    
Monday Jul 22, 08:30 Hong Kong SAR  Consumer Price Index Low 3.9%  
Monday Jul 22, 12:30 United States  Chicago Fed National Activity Index Medium -0.3  
Monday Jul 22, 13:00 Mexico  Retail Sales (MoM) Low -0.8%  
Monday Jul 22, 13:00 Mexico  Retail Sales (YoY) Low 2.5%  
Monday Jul 22, 14:00 United States  Existing Home Sales (MoM) High 5.18 5.26
Monday Jul 22, 14:00 United States  Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) Medium 4.2% 0.5%
Monday Jul 22, 15:30 United States  3-Month Bill Auction Low 0.04%  
Monday Jul 22, 15:30 United States  6-Month Bill Auction Low 0.07%  
Tuesday Jul 23, 05:00 Singapore  Consumer Price Index (YoY) Low 1.6  
Tuesday Jul 23, 06:00 Finland  Unemployment Rate Low 8.5%  
Tuesday Jul 23, 06:45 France  Business Climate Low 93.0  
Tuesday Jul 23, 07:00 Denmark  Consumer Confidence Low 3.4  
Tuesday Jul 23, 08:00 Turkey  Foreign Arrivals Low 17.82%  
Tuesday Jul 23, 08:00 Poland  Retail Sales (YoY) Low -0.2%  
Tuesday Jul 23, 08:00 Poland  Unemployment (MoM) Low 14.0%  
Tuesday Jul 23, 08:30 United Kingdom  BBA Mortgage Approvals Medium 36.1 38.5
Tuesday Jul 23, 08:40 Spain  9-Month Letras auction Low 1.441%  
Tuesday Jul 23, 08:50 Spain  3-Month Letras Auction Low 0.869%  
Tuesday Jul 23, 11:00 Turkey  TCMB Interest Rate Decision Low 4.5%  
Tuesday Jul 23, 12:00 Hungary  MNB Interest Rate Decision Low 4.25%  
Tuesday Jul 23, 12:30 Canada  Retail Sales (MoM) High 0.1% 0.3%
Tuesday Jul 23, 12:30 Canada  Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) Medium -0.3% 0.2%
Tuesday Jul 23, 12:55 United States  Redbook index (MoM) Low 0.8%  
Tuesday Jul 23, 12:55 United States  Redbook index (YoY) Low 3.0%  
Tuesday Jul 23, 13:00 United States  Housing Price Index (MoM) Medium 0.7%  
Tuesday Jul 23, 13:30 Brazil  Current Account Low $-6.42  
Tuesday Jul 23, 14:00 European Monetary Union  Consumer Confidence Medium -18.8 -18.3
Tuesday Jul 23, 14:00 United States  Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index Low 8.0 7.0
Tuesday Jul 23, 15:30 United States  4-Week Bill Auction Low 0.02%  
Tuesday Jul 23, 19:00 Argentina  Trade Balance (MoM) Low $1338.0  
Tuesday Jul 23, 22:45 New Zealand  Exports Low $4.08 $3.9
Tuesday Jul 23, 22:45 New Zealand  Imports Low $4.01 $3.9
Tuesday Jul 23, 22:45 New Zealand  Trade Balance (MoM) Medium $71.0 $-100.0
Tuesday Jul 23, 22:45 New Zealand  Trade Balance (YoY) Low $-0.87 $-1.26
Tuesday Jul 23, 23:50 Japan  Merchandise Trade Balance Total Medium ¥-993.9 ¥-160.6
Tuesday Jul 23, 23:50 Japan  Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance Low ¥-821.045 ¥-580.0
Tuesday Jul 23, 23:50 Japan  Exports (YoY) Low 10.1% 10.3%
Tuesday Jul 23, 23:50 Japan  Imports (YoY) Low 10.0% 13.6%
Wednesday Jul 24, 01:30 Australia  Consumer Price Index (QoQ) Medium 0.4% 0.5%
Wednesday Jul 24, 01:30 Australia  Consumer Price Index (YoY) High 2.5% 2.5%
Wednesday Jul 24, 01:30 Australia  RBA trimmed mean CPI (QoQ) Low 0.3% 0.5%
Wednesday Jul 24, 01:30 Australia  RBA trimmed mean CPI (YoY) Low 2.2% 2.2%
Wednesday Jul 24, 01:45 China  HSBC Manufacturing PMI High 48.2  
Wednesday Jul 24, 06:00 Finland  Export Prices (YoY) Low -1.4%  
Wednesday Jul 24, 06:00 Finland  Import Prices (YoY) Low -2.1%  
Wednesday Jul 24, 06:00 Finland  Producer Price Index (YoY) Low -0.4%  
Wednesday Jul 24, 06:58 France  Markit Manufacturing PMI High 48.4 48.8
Wednesday Jul 24, 06:58 France  Markit Services PMI Low 47.2 47.7
Wednesday Jul 24, 07:28 Germany  Markit Services PMI Medium 50.4 50.8
Wednesday Jul 24, 07:28 Germany  Markit Manufacturing PMI High 48.6 49.4
Wednesday Jul 24, 07:58 European Monetary Union  Markit Manufacturing PMI Medium 48.8 49.2
Wednesday Jul 24, 07:58 European Monetary Union  Markit PMI Composite Medium 48.7 49.3
Wednesday Jul 24, 07:58 European Monetary Union  Markit Services PMI Medium 48.3 48.5
Wednesday Jul 24, 08:00 Italy  Retail Sales n.s.a (YoY) Low -2.9%  
Wednesday Jul 24, 08:00 Italy  Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) Low -0.1%  
Wednesday Jul 24, 08:00 South Africa  Consumer Price Index (MoM) Low -0.3%  
Wednesday Jul 24, 08:00 South Africa  Consumer Price Index (YoY) Low 5.6%  
Wednesday Jul 24, 08:00 Italy  Trade Balance non-EU Low €2.968  
Wednesday Jul 24, 09:00 Iceland  Consumer Price Index (MoM) Low 0.5%  
Wednesday Jul 24, 09:00 Iceland  Consumer Price Index (YoY) Low 3.3%  
Wednesday Jul 24, 10:00 United Kingdom  CBI Distributive Trades Survey – Realized (MoM) Low 1.0  
Wednesday Jul 24, 10:00 United Kingdom  CBI Industrial Trends Survey – Orders (MoM) Low -18.0  
Wednesday Jul 24, 11:00 United States  MBA Mortgage Applications Low -2.6%  
Wednesday Jul 24, 11:30 India  M3 Money Supply Low 12.8%  
Wednesday Jul 24, 12:58 United States  Markit Manufacturing PMI Medium 51.9 51.9
Wednesday Jul 24, 13:00 Mexico  1st half-month Core Inflation Low 0.07%  
Wednesday Jul 24, 13:00 Mexico  1st half-month Inflation Low -0.05%  
Wednesday Jul 24, 14:00 United States  New Home Sales (MoM) High 0.476 0.485
Wednesday Jul 24, 14:00 United States  New Home Sales Change (MoM) Low 2.1%  
Wednesday Jul 24, 14:30 United States  EIA Crude Oil Stocks change Medium -6.902  
Wednesday Jul 24, 21:00 New Zealand  RBNZ Interest Rate Decision High 2.5% 2.5%
Wednesday Jul 24, 23:50 Japan  Corporate Service Price (YoY) Low 0.3%  
Wednesday Jul 24, 23:50 Japan  Foreign bond investment Medium ¥1105.7  
Wednesday Jul 24, 23:50 Japan  Foreign investment in Japan stocks Medium ¥398.2  
Thursday Jul 25, 06:00 United Kingdom  Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY) Medium 1.9%  
Thursday Jul 25, 06:00 United Kingdom  Nationwide Housing Prices s.a (MoM) Low 0.3%  
Thursday Jul 25, 07:00 Austria  Industrial Production (YoY) Low 0.7%  
Thursday Jul 25, 07:00 Spain  Unemployment Survey Low 27.16% 27.3%
Thursday Jul 25, 08:00 Germany  IFO – Business Climate Medium 105.9 106.1
Thursday Jul 25, 08:00 Germany  IFO – Current Assessment Medium 109.4 110.0
Thursday Jul 25, 08:00 Germany  IFO – Expectations Medium 102.5 102.5
Thursday Jul 25, 08:00 European Monetary Union  M3 Money Supply (3m) Low 2.9%  
Thursday Jul 25, 08:00 European Monetary Union  M3 Money Supply (YoY) Low 2.9%  
Thursday Jul 25, 08:00 European Monetary Union  Private loans (YoY) Low -1.1% -1.1%
Thursday Jul 25, 08:00 Italy  Consumer Confidence Low 95.7 94.1
Thursday Jul 25, 08:30 United Kingdom  Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) High 0.3%  
Thursday Jul 25, 08:30 United Kingdom  Gross Domestic Product (YoY) High 0.3%  
Thursday Jul 25, 08:30 United Kingdom  Index of Services (3M/3M) Low 0.2%  
Thursday Jul 25, 09:30 Germany  30-y Bond Auction Low 2.16%  
Thursday Jul 25, 09:50 France  10-y Bond Auction Low 2.32%  
Thursday Jul 25, 12:00 Brazil  Unemployment Rate Low 5.8%  
Thursday Jul 25, 12:30 United States  Continuing Jobless Claims Medium 3.114  
Thursday Jul 25, 12:30 United States  Durable Goods Orders High 3.6% 0.5%
Thursday Jul 25, 12:30 United States  Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation High 0.7% 0.5%
Thursday Jul 25, 12:30 United States  Initial Jobless Claims High 334.0  
Thursday Jul 25, 13:00 Belgium  Leading Indicator Low -12.8  
Thursday Jul 25, 13:30 Turkey  Capacity Utilization Low 75.3%  
Thursday Jul 25, 14:30 United States  EIA Natural Gas Storage change Low 58.0  
Thursday Jul 25, 15:00 United States  Kansas Fed manufacturing activity Low -17.0  
Thursday Jul 25, 23:30 Japan  National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) High -0.4%  
Thursday Jul 25, 23:30 Japan  National Consumer Price Index (YoY) High -0.3%  
Thursday Jul 25, 23:30 Japan  National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) Medium 0.0% 0.3%
Thursday Jul 25, 23:30 Japan  Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) Low 0.0%  
Thursday Jul 25, 23:30 Japan  Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) Low -0.4%  
Thursday Jul 25, 23:30 Japan  Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) Low 0.2% 0.3%
Friday Jul 26, 05:00 Singapore  Industrial production (MoM) Low 1.2%  
Friday Jul 26, 05:00 Singapore  Industrial Production (YoY) Low 2.1%  
Friday Jul 26, 06:00 Germany  Import Price Index (MoM) Low -0.4%  
Friday Jul 26, 06:00 Germany  Import Price Index (YoY) Low -2.9%  
Friday Jul 26, 06:45 France  Consumer Confidence Low 78.0 79.0
Friday Jul 26, 07:00 Denmark  Retail Sales (YoY) Low -0.7%  
Friday Jul 26, 11:30 India  Bank Loan Growth Low 13.7%  
Friday Jul 26, 13:00 Mexico  Trade Balance s/a, $ Low $-1.103  
Friday Jul 26, 13:00 Mexico  Trade Balance, $ Low $-0.47  
Friday Jul 26, 13:55 United States  Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index High 84.1  
Friday Jul 26, 19:00 Argentina  Industrial Output n.s.a (YoY) Low 5.2%

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