weekendowe myśli i nowe setupy

“Zawsze myślę o stracie pieniędzy, zamiast o zarabianiu. Nie skupiajcie się na zarabianiu, skupcie się na zabezpieczeniu tego, co macie” – Paul Tudor Jones

To był interesujący tydzień na Forexie. Spójrzymy na wykresy euro i dolara i inne interesujące setupy. w tym na te, które przedstawiłem w poprzednim tygodniu.

EURUSD

Interim wsparcie na 1.3530 przedstawione w piątkowym raporcie było testowane na reakcję na NFP – wynik 36K, niższy od oczekiwanych 140K stopa bezrobocia, która jakoś spadła o 0.4 procenta, do 9.0% w styczniu – największy dwumiesięczny spadek w stopie bezrobocia od 1958 r. Czy ten spadek jest znakiem, że gospodarka ruszyła? Jeśli pytacie mnie – niestety, nie mam czarnoksiężnej kuli, by wiedzieć, jaka jest realna stopa bezrobocia, ale pierwszą rzeczą, jaka przyszła mi do głowy po opublikowaniu danych, były słowa Marka Twaina: “Istnieją kłamstwa, przeklęte kłamstwa i statystyki.”

W następnym tygodniu możliwe są spadki, a wykres stanie się niedźwiedzi jeśli cena spadnie do 1.3450/00. Po stronie popytowej mamy poziom 1.3750, który jest oporem, a następnie szczyty z poprzedniego tygodnia na 1.3860 i 1.400.

EURUSD daily chart 2-6-2011
EURUSD daily chart 2-6-2011

If the daily chart above still looks bullish and won’t be a surprise if price resumes the uptrend – things are different on the weekly chart below. I don’t know about you – but when I’m on the bull side and see such candles forming, my second personality, who is a very careful trader 🙂 – tells me to grab any profit and run!

EURUSD weekly chart 2-6-2011
EURUSD weekly chart 2-6-2011
EURUSD 4hrs chart 2-6-2011
EURUSD 4hrs chart 2-6-2011

Every trading week is interesting in its own way. Buying the euro at any level in the last 3 weeks was the best thing to do but the bears woke up, thanks to Mr. Trichet.

less hawkish - bears woke up
less hawkish – bears woke up

The USD Index chart is also very interesting as the support trendline that connects some of the higher lows since 2008 was tested. Resistance is currently formed around 79, which was a notable bottom breached in the 2nd half of January. Since the USD Index and EURUSD are inversely correlated – a break below the longer term trend line below should correspond to EURUSD resuming uptrend – overcoming resistance around 1.38. Therefore, if you like trading breakouts – keep an eye on 77, $1.38 respectively.

USD Index weekly chart 2-6-2011
USD Index weekly chart 2-6-2011
Quantitative Easing helps the economy
Quantitative Easing helps the economy

Metals gained on Bernanke’s comments last Thursday, as he suggested the Fed will continue its $600 billion Treasury bond-buying program.

So let’s take a look at Silver

Silver 4hrs chart chart 2-6-2011
Silver 4hrs chart chart 2-6-2011

Silver breached above 28.40 since my last update and currently trades around 29 – bringing 30 on the radar. That’s the first resistance, followed by the 31.20 top. Short term studies are suggesting that the uptrend resumes and first support layer stands into the 28-28.40 zone.

GBPUSD

Resistance at 1.6300 which I compared to a magnet was tested on Thursday, when the GBP reached a session high at 1.6275, before reversing. Support at 1.6030 (January’s top) is still intact and if it holds, there’s a good chance to break above last year highs.

GBPUSD daily chart 2-06-2011
GBPUSD daily chart 2-06-2011

NZDUSD

NZDUSD daily chart 2-06-2011
NZDUSD daily chart 2-06-2011

That resistance point at .7800 is strong, indeed. Although the Australian dollar has gained against the US dollar in the last days, the NZ dollar didn’t follow the same path. The correlation between the AUD and NZD remains high, around 90% on the long term basis,  they decoupled (temporarily) on short-term basis, as the AUD surged on hawkish statement from the RBA last week while the NZD declined on worst than expected Unemployment (6.8% Vs. 6.5% expected).

AUDUSD vs NZDUSD daily correlation
AUDUSD vs NZDUSD daily correlation

As both NZD and AUD are likely to benefit from rising commodity prices – I remain bullish on both but will consider buying NZDUSD only if .7800 will be challenged again.

USDPLN

USDPLN daily chart 2-06-2011
USDPLN daily chart 2-06-2011

It’s probably a good idea to wait and see if price will stabilize back above support trendline. Around 2.9100 there’s resistance formed by a previous lower high, followed by a falling trendline. Looking for selling opportunities is still a viable plan.

EURGBP

EURGBP daily chart 2-06-2011
EURGBP daily chart 2-06-2011

The potential range pattern I highlighted is still in play and the recent break below .8490 supports the bear case.

CHFJPY

CHFJPY daily chart 2-06-2011
CHFJPY daily chart 2-06-2011

Selling around range top – at 87.70 was a good idea, 85.80 was tested but the failure to close below said support, thus forming a reversal candle is a warning sign. If I were to pick a bottom, I would do it now. But I rather look for a new selling opportunity on potential break below 85.80.

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About abwehra group

The Art&Science of Trading Gold
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