1.3850 breakout complete

ust a quick update to yesterday’s thoughts & charts


The euro rallied well over 1.3850 today as Jean-Claude Trichet said that policy makers may soon hike interest rates to fight inflation. We are currently trading 40 points away from $1.40 and there’s no sign of exhaustion. However, I doubt we’ll see a break above 1.40 before the NFP – but a weekly close above 1.3850 is quite possible. My plan to buy at 1.3850 earlier today worked well and the position is at +100 pips right now. I will look to close half if price pulls back towards 1.3930 and let the other half open with stop at break even point.

EURUSD daily chart 3-3-2011
EURUSD daily chart 3-3-2011


The dollar recovered against the Swiss franc following EURCHF. As I mentioned yesterday – the chart was screaming for a reversal and we have it. Let’s see now how price reacts on reaching the former support line at .9330.

USDCHF daily chart 3-3-2011
USDCHF daily chart 3-3-2011


AUDUSD daily chart 3-3-2011
AUDUSD daily chart 3-3-2011
AUDUSD 4hrs chart 3-3-2011
AUDUSD 4hrs chart 3-3-2011


This trendline connecting the higher lows since October 2010 was quite strong so far and the bounce today was a good opportunity to play a potential reversal scenario. In case you are wondering why the USDJPY rallied – take a look at EURJPY and you’ll get the answer.

USDJPY daily chart 3-3-2011
USDJPY daily chart 3-3-2011


The daily chart looks more interesting today as the dollar declines below the rising trendline – suggesting that the whole consolidation cycle starting around January 20 was a bear flag pattern. It looks very bearish…

USDPLN daily chart 3-3-2011
USDPLN daily chart 3-3-2011

Another chart worth watching is the EURJPY. Some of you probably know that I’ve been waiting for the 115 test since two weeks ago and right now I expect more upside to be seen.

EURJPY weekly chart 3-3-2011
EURJPY weekly chart 3-3-20111

About abwehra group

The Art&Science of Trading Gold
This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s