EURUSD Vulnerable After The Sell-Off, Ahead Of Non-Farm Payrolls

Quote of the day: “If everything seems under control, you’re not going fast enough” – Mario Andrett

EURUSD – 1.4565 @07:05 GMT

Good morning. A bit latter today, in one hour or so, I am going to publish a great interview with a trader I admire and I suggest you don’t miss it. Ok, back to the EURUSD now. Yesterday’s decline was impressive: several failed attempts to break over 1.49 on its way to 1.5, a prolonged range-bound trading between 1.4770 and 1.49 were already suggesting that a break on either side would be violent due to a huge number of stop loss orders out of the range. Trichet’s less hawkish comments signaled that a rate hike is unlikely in June, but rather in July – sending EUR below short-term support zones. Euro’s sell-off was also supported by the free-fall in commodities. Kind of a perfect storm… Well, the week ain’t over yet as this is “that” Friday of the month. The EURUSD is currently trying to build support on the median retrace of last up leg from 1.4220 to 1.4935, as seen in the chart below. Whole 1.4500-1.4550 region looks like a decent intra-day support so far. Looking at the daily charts, there’s more room for this correction, but the uptrend is still intact. Keep an eye on support zone all the way down to 1.4450, though. In case of an upside pullback, intraday resistance comes around former support zone at 1.4650, followed by 1.4700-1.4750.

Trading strategy: looking to sell on potential pullback to 1.4700, stop at 1.4760 (0.5% risk), target at 1.4600

Support: 1.4550, 1.4500, 1.4450 and 1.4400
Resistance: 1.4590/00, 1.4650, 1.4700 and 1.4750/70
Market sentiment: long term – mixed, medium term – bullish, short term – mixed, intraday – bearish

EURUSD 4hrs chart 5-6-2011
EURUSD 4hrs chart 5-6-2011
EURUSD daily chart 5-6-2011
EURUSD daily chart 5-6-2011

About abwehra group

The Art&Science of Trading Gold
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