Markets Waiting for Jackson Hole Comments

Article originally published on and republished here with permission

Quote of the day: “We are never deceived; we deceive ourselves” ~ Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

Good morning. The big day is here as all eyes are on Bernanke at the Jackson Hole later today. Everyone is wondering whether he will hint of a third round of quantitative easing or similar measures. Except a few currency pairs and precious metals, the market has been rather choppy this week.

How do you expect Bernanke’s Speech at Jackson Hole to influence the dollar?
I expect the dollar to declineI expect the dollar to rallyNo major impactI don’t knowOther:

Here’s what to watch out for now:


Still consolidating in a range, finding support on the rising trendline which is connecting recent higher lows. Resistance around 1.4500 providing selling opportunities on rallies

Euro Vs US Dollar 4hrs Chart 8-26-2011Euro Vs US Dollar 4hrs Chart 8-26-2011


As mentioned in my recent reports such as yesterday’s, I remain bullish on AUDUSD while carefully watching support near 1.0400. As long as we hold above, the Aussie has a good chance to break higher above 1.0500, following the equity indices; and Bernanke’s speech at Jackson Hole is likely to have a strong impact on equity markets, therefore AUDUSD.  So the plan here is to hold long while being ready to reverse position on the potential breakdown below 1.0400

Australian Dollar Vs US Dollar Daily Chart 8-26-2011Australian Dollar Vs US Dollar Daily Chart 8-26-2011


Horizontal resistance at the round value 1.1500 is intact after yesterday’s test but sentiment is little changed, so while we’re up here – it’s a good idea to expect more gains, rather than a reversal.

Euro Vs Swiss Franc Daily Chart 8-26-2011Euro Vs Swiss Franc Daily Chart 8-26-2011


It seems that the strong correction has come to an end, at least for a while – now that support at 50% of last up leg stayed intact. We now have a nice reversal candle suggesting that a test of former support at 1800 is in the cards.

Gold Daily Chart 8-26-2011Gold Daily Chart 8-26-2011


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The Art&Science of Trading Gold
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