Article originally published on innerfx.com and republished here with permission
Quote of the day:“One of the lessons of history is that nothing is often a good thing to do and always a clever thing to say.” ~ Will Durant
Good morning. Japan’s intervention to weaken the Yen is today’ hottest topic – USDJPY trading to as high as 79.50 from session lows around 75.50, EURJPY reaching 111.55 from 107, AUDJPY testing offers near 84 a bit earlier today after setting a daily low at 80.70 etc.
As I pointed out a few days ago, buying the Aussie dollar against the Yen was a better idea than holding USDJPY longs (comparing +12% to +2.4% monthly performance) or buying it every time a record low was established. While it is trading ‘comfortably’ above 80-82, I remain bullish expecting more upside to be seen.
What’s quite interesting about USDJPY today is that according to Oanda’s retail positions figures, the long-to-short positions ratio dropped from 87% as of Friday (pre intervention) to 69% today (post intervention). I don’t have Friday’s graph but you have to take my word for it. What does it mean? well, I’d say that most retail perma-bulls already exited their trades and I’m pretty sure that most targets have been quite modest, such as 50 pips etc. Now, the question is: is it really worth to keep buying it every single day while waiting for BoJ to intervene? it’s not like they do it every week – it’s only their third intervention in a year.
The euro pulled back against the dollar, testing bids near $1.400 at time of writing. Current weakness is caused by dollar’s strength across the board, mainly due to USDJPY’s rally. Buying at these levels might be a good idea if ready to consider short opportunities on the potential break below 1.400
As said above – today’s USDJPY rally helped the dollar to gain against its major counterparts, therefore the USD Index is trading higher – after it found support at 75.
have a great day!