Article originally published on innerfx.com and republished here with permission
Quote of the day: “Statistics: The only science that enables different experts using the same figures to draw different conclusions.” ~ Evan Esar
Good morning. Euro remains weak across the board although it bounced off support near 1.3400. The recovery is modest, so I believe that best thing to do is still to sell into strength. The Initial Jobless Claims is the most important event of today’s FX calendar.
Maybe it is a bit too low to sell at these levels unless, of course, price violently breaks below 1.3400/30 on more eurozone problems. Else, I think it’s best to wait for an extended correction towards 1.3650-1.37.
The positive correlation between GBPUSD and AUDUSD can be seen from a plane nowadays, being 80% to 90% (both hourly and daily). In fact, the correlation between ALL currency pairs can be seen from a plane, but now let’s focus on this one. Median fib retracement value is under pressure since yesterday and if you’re one of the aggressive buyers, then you probably have a good reason to buy the dip. I am more conservative and would rather sell on rallies
Support still holds but looks fragile..
It is still trading sideways in a consolidation range between 33 and 35.00/30, so there’s not much to do right now but watch & wait. The move from 26 to 35 after the huge decline seems corrective, thus selling on the break below 33 is the main plan
Not the best looking breakout pattern but upside remains favored, although intraday pullbacks are quite violent – most likely tearing through weak stops