Survey participants are divided on the price outlook for gold next week, with no one group capturing the majority of opinions, although nominally more participants see weaker prices.
In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 36 participants, 25 responded this week. Of those 25 participants, eight see prices up, while 11 see prices down and six see prices moving sideways or are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders, money managers and technical-chart analysts.
Those who see weaker prices cited several factors including a stronger dollar, weaker technical charts and stronger equity markets.
“Gold tried to break out, but failed. Longs came in as the market pushed above $1,400 and held just below $1,500 for several weeks, but short positions were established against the $1,500 level pressuring those long positions. In the futures, sell stops are being hit on this decline. There are still long positions in the ETFs (exchange-traded funds) and this market is testing their resolve. The physical buying in India and China will not be able to replace the investment dollars that went into the ETF markets. Speaking of the dollar, this current strength is a big problem for gold as well. (Fifteen hundred) failed and now we will see how $1,400 fares. I expect prices to be steady to lower next week,” said Frank Lesh, futures broker at FuturePath Trading.
The participants who see higher prices said they expect gold to find buying interest at these lower levels and rebound slightly.
Those who see prices sideways or are neutral said they see prices trying to consolidate in the recent range.
“I suspect gold will be flat next week. We’ll likely see some up and down around the current level for a few weeks. After a strong rally following the mid-April collapse, some consolidation at best, retreat at worst, is to be expected,” said Adrian Day, chairman & CEO, Adrian Day Asset Management.