Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets for June 10-14

Major commodities including natural gas, silver and gold slipped during last week. The latest decision of ECB to leave its cash rate unchanged helped pull up the Euro and bullion rates. But the latest U.S employment report, in which 175k jobs were added in May dragged down precious metals prices. In the upcoming week several reports, decisions and events may affect the financial markets. These include: France’s industrial production, U.S core PPI, BOJ monetary statement, China’s new loans, Australia’s employment report, Canada’s manufacturing sales, GB manufacturing conditions, Japan Current account, IEA monthly update, U.S retail sales, OPEC monthly report, and U.S. jobless claims.  Here is an economic outlook for the week of June 10th to June 14th regarding the U.S, China, Euro Area, Japan, Australia, Canada, and Great Britain.   

(All times GMT):

Monday, June 10th

00:50 – Japan Current Account: this monthly update will present the changes in the difference between exports and imports for Japan during last month; this news may affect the strength of the Japanese Yen;

08:45 – French Industrial Production: The upcoming report will refer to May 2013. In the latest update, the industrial production declined by 0.9% during April;

Tuesday, June 11th

Tentative – Bank of Japan – Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Statement: Bank of Japan will come out with its interest rate decision and monetary policy for June. In the past several days the Japanese yen rallied against the USD. If BOJ will further introduce additional measures in order to pull up the inflation and jump start the Japanese economy such as augmenting  its current asset purchase program, this could pull down the Yen against leading currencies;

Tentative – China New Loans: This report will pertain to the recent shifts in China’s new loans. Based on the recent update, the total loans rose again for the second consecutive month; this report is another indicator for China’s economic growth;

09:30 – Great Britain Manufacturing Production: this report will present the annual rate of GB’s manufacturing production in April; in the previous report regarding March 2013 the index rose again by 1.1% (M-2-M); this news may affect the British Pound;

Tentative – OPEC Monthly Report: this monthly report will show the developments in crude oil and natural gas’s supply and demand worldwide as of May 2013; this update will also pertain to the shifts in the production of OPEC countries during last month; this news may affect oil prices;

Wednesday, June 12th

09:30 – Great Britain Claimant Count Change: This update will show the changes in the number of unemployed in GB; as of last month’s report this figure had slipped by 7.3k; the rate of unemployment inched down to 7.8%;

10:00 –EU Industrial Production: this report will present the monthly changes in the industrial production as of May; as of April, the production rose by 1.0%; this report may affect the euro/usd;

Tentative –IEA Monthly Oil Report: the upcoming monthly update will show a revised (as of May) outlook and analysis for the global crude oil and natural gas market for 2013 and 2014;

Tentative – U.S 10 Year Bond Auction: the U.S government will come out with its monthly bond auction; in last auction, which was held at the second week of May, the average rate reached 1.81% – slightly higher than in the previous auction;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on June 7th; in the previous update for the week ending on May 31st, stockpiles slightly declined by 1.17 ml bl to reach 1,811.1 ml bl.

19:00 –U.S. Federal Budget Balance: this upcoming report will refer to May 2013; this report indicates the government debt growth and thus may affect the U.S dollar. In the previous report regarding April the deficit fell by $112 billion; if the deficit will continue to contract, it could indicate the economic progress of the U.S economy is slowing down;

Thursday, June 13th

02:30 – Australia Employment Report: in the recent report regarding April 2013 the rate of unemployment slipped to 5.5%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) rose by 50,100 people. This report could affect the Aussie dollar (see here the recent report);

09:00 – ECB Monthly Bulletin: This monthly report for May analyzes the economic shifts of the Euro Area such as the price stability, interest rate decisions and governments’ debt; this update may provide some perspective on the outlooks of the EU progress;

Tentative – Italian 10 Year Bond Auction: in the last bond auction, which was held at the end of May, the average rate reached 4.14%;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  this weekly update will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on June 7th; in the pervious report the jobless claims fell by 11k to reach 346k; this forthcoming weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and equities markets;

13:30 –U.S. Retail Sales Report: this report will show the monthly changes in the retail sales and food services for May; in the recent report regarding April, the retail sales inched up by 0.1% from the previous month; gasoline stations sales declined by 4.7% in April compared to March 2013; this report could signal the shifts in U.S’s gasoline demand and thus may affect oil prices in the U.S;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage Update: the EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of May 31st; in recent weekly update, natural gas storage rose by 111 Bcf to 2,252 Bcf;

00:50 – Japan’s monetary policy meeting: Following Japan’s monetary policy meeting, the minutes of this meeting will come out. This news item could offer some insight behind the future moves of BOJ;

Friday, June 14th

10:00 – Euro Area CPI: according to the previous update the annual CPI sharply fell to 1.2%, which is much lower than ECB’s target inflation; if the inflation will continue to dwindle, it could raise the chances of ECB cutting again its cash rate;

13:30 – Canada Manufacturing Sales (April 2013): This report will pertain to the manufacturing sales in Canada as of April. It may affect the USD/CAD currencies pair, which is strongly correlated with commodities prices. In the recent report regarding March 2013, manufacturing sales slipped by 0.3%;

13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report will present the developments in the PPI during May 2013, i.e. the inflation rate from the producers’ side. In the previous report regarding April, this index for finished goods fell again by 0.7% compared with March’s rate and rose by 0.6% in the past 12 months; this news might affect the path of commodities rates;

14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary):University of Michigan will publish its preliminary consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could offer an insight to latest changes in U.S consumers’ sentiment; based on the recent update, the sentiment index sharply increased to 83.7

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The Art&Science of Trading Gold
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