By: Alex Rosenberg
They’re two of the assets investors have loved the most for quite awhile—and this year, they’ve been two of the most disappointing.
Apple and gold are both down more than 25 percent in the first half, with the latter performing the worst. But Mark Dow of the Behavioral Macro blog said the two could follow very different trajectories in the second half.
“Apple is in the later stages of a bubble,” Dow told “Futures Now.” “Gold, on the other hand, is in the acceleration phase of an unwinding bubble.”
That means that the two will trade differently.
Apple, he said, “is trading on the idiosyncratic factors of Apple: ‘Have they come out with something new? Are they going to?’ “
Gold, however, was pumped up because of a macro thesis that was simply incorrect, according to Dow.
“People were fundamentally wrong about the consequences of printing money, and they’re just coming around to this realization now,” he said. “It’s not just the recent Fed actions. Gold has been going down for two years. It’s just now that it’s starting to accelerate that it’s really catching people’s attention. So gold, in my view, has much, much further to go.”
So what’s the trade? Dow figures two ways to go about it.
“Between the two, you obviously want to be long Apple—long Apple, short gold,” he said. But he this trade poses a problem, he added. “Apple’s future is more tied to its own factors, and it’s hard to predict what those factors are going to be unless you really follow the company closely.”
For that reason, Dow said, “if you believe in the recovery, you don’t believe there’s going to be a ‘Lehman Two,’ you don’t believe there’s going to be hyperinflation or a fiat currency meltdown— the much better trade is to just go long the S&P and short gold. It’s a great recovery trade.”